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  #11  
Old 04-17-2004, 12:19 PM
sweetzer sweetzer is offline
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Default Implied odds.

Odd how this thread deteriorated so quickly without the reasonable question of implied odds arising. At 17:1, if your bet closed the action on a 23:1 draw, implied odds should be considered, especially as in your example with a Ace on the flop, likely two players with Aces in their hands will take a turn raise to the showdown. One other sidelight of "taking one off" is that if you spike the turn, you will create a lot of grief and increased action for the remainder of the session. However, keeping the play of small pairs simple, flop a set or muck, will make your game a lot easier to play, especially when you start trying to stretch implied odds too much to fit a desire to "take one off".
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  #12  
Old 04-17-2004, 04:42 PM
talkinghead talkinghead is offline
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Default Re: Calling a flop bet with a small pocket pair

In this instance I would completely ignore implied odds and call or fold based on the pot odds of making my hand on the turn. (17 to 1 so fold).
The reason being, you are not going to win the hand 100% of the time when you do catch your 4, if someone has 55, 88, AA, or 67s you're beaten already, they could be playing 66, 77 and catch the str8 card on the river, or your four could put a two flush on the board which then is completed on the river. Many other possibilities like A8s outdrawing you on the river, or pkt 10's or J's spiking their miracle set exist, if any of the above happen you're gonna lose a lotta chips.
In these situations I cancel out the implied odds with the chance that i'll make my hand and still lose (to simplify things) and make the call based on the pot odds only. It's certainly a waste of chips to call here.
No computer simulation to back this up but i'd estimate, based on experience that when you hit your 4 with 3 other players still in there they will only be good 75% of the time. There's gonna be some capped rounds when you're beaten and no guarantee of such action when you're not.
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  #13  
Old 04-17-2004, 04:45 PM
talkinghead talkinghead is offline
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Default Re: Calling a flop bet with a small pocket pair

I'll also advise to discount implied odds when drawing to hands such as the non-nut flush, or other non-lock holdings.
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  #14  
Old 04-17-2004, 06:05 PM
Dynasty Dynasty is offline
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Default Re: Calling a flop bet with a small pocket pair

In this situation, you call because you also have two backdoor straight draws.
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  #15  
Old 04-18-2004, 12:26 AM
elysium elysium is offline
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Default Re: Calling a flop bet with a small pocket pair

hi hb
as long as your call closes the action and you're getting 6 to 1 on a non-coordinated board, you can call. you might question the 6 to 1 but because of implied odds, and other things that can happen those times you don't spike the turn but nonetheless improve either by picking up a one card draw or just getting checked to and allowed another opportunity to spike on the river, your call with just 6 to 1 is fine. you don't need the 22 to 1.

more importantly though, the action should be the type that's aggressive only pre-flop or that has become passive because of your entry into the hand. if it's very aggressive, that's great for the pre-flop but not so great if you are considering seeing the turn. the reason is that you lose all hope of getting checked to. often, games can get passive on the expensive rounds with a lot of posturing pre-flop and flop. you need to have a clue here. you need passive turn and river conditions. ironically, you might muck this hand from that same position in a short-handed game if the game was passive, or muck from EP if it wasn't. the most important consideration though clearly is whether or not your call closes the action. it must close things up, and the board mustn't be heavily coordinated. incidently, if 87 instead of 76 filled in the straight, and you held a pocket pair which upon spiking also completed, 55 for example, you shouldn't attempt the spike. you learn that you need to consider 87 as being a possible holding out there. you never give the same consideration to the 76 which fills the four straight that's possible in the example you posted. if it was a possible gapped straight, you draw the line at T8. also, when you are double over-carded by 2 broadway cards, you don't attempt the spike. so if you had 99, but QTX flopped, you are out of there. the idea here is that there are too many redraws on the river that reduce your odds considerably. and of course, as mason teaches in his fampous post, you like having one of your pair suited to the two toned flop so that you don't make a set while someone else makes a flush. now, if you don't have the one of suit, it's not over just yet, but you will need better than 6 to 1 to continue. figure oh 8 to 1. if you have a suit of the two toned board though, and the opposition is weak tight, betting from LP is often correct on the turn, even if you have an opportunity to get a free-card.
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