Pushing AK Preflop

[mason55]

I almost never push AK preflop. In fact, I can't remember a single time that I have done it in the past 2 months. Moving up to the 100's, however, I find things to be a little more loose and aggressive. This is the first time that I felt really comfortable pushing AK preflop.

Table history: I've been here 20 minutes. 10 minutes ago seat two pushed into me preflop when I had AA. He left and a new seat two sat down. This is the villain in this hand.

5 minutes ago I was UTG+1. I made it $4 with QJs. Villain called. I flopped the nut straight, we got it all in on the flop and he showed KT for flopped two pair.

2 minutes ago I was SB. UTG made it $2 (he was doing this almost every hand. Button called I made it $7 with AQs to take it down. Villain made it $12. Me and UTG both called. Flop came T8T, I check, villain bets pot, we both fold.

So on to the current hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Hero ($247.50)
Button ($125.90)
SB ($31.97)
BB ($59.65)
UTG ($63.90)
MP ($65.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.

UTG calls, MP folds, Hero raises to $4, Villain raises to $25, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, MP folds, Hero pushes for $250, Villain calls all in


Look standard? Since I feel like villain is playing back to me this is a pretty good time to push right?

[Isura]

Your table history is not enough information to think he is playing back IMO. Fold to the reraise preflop. I'd also make it 5-6 preflop since I want to isolate the 60bb stack with this hand.

Edit: I find in the $100 game, players will rarely raise $25 preflop and fold to a push.

[mason55]

Wow. I figured this would be a perfect spot. He has shown he's a donkey (he 4-bet-pushed with bottom two when I raised PF on an AKT board) and he's shown that he's aggressive PF (3 betting a caller and a raiser).

What situations DO you look for when pushing AK PF because, like I said, this seems perfect.

I cant ever rationalize pushing AK pf without having tournament chips in front of me. Something about the fact that I will almost always have a better spot to stack them later just makes me not want to do it.

Is this weak-tight?

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
I cant ever rationalize pushing AK pf without having tournament chips in front of me. Something about the fact that I will almost always have a better spot to stack them later just makes me not want to do it.

Is this weak-tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I'm trying to find out. I haven't seen a good, mathematically based coherant argument that pushing is bad.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I cant ever rationalize pushing AK pf without having tournament chips in front of me. Something about the fact that I will almost always have a better spot to stack them later just makes me not want to do it.

Is this weak-tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I'm trying to find out. I haven't seen a good, mathematically based coherant argument that pushing is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

One can do the EV calculation...

1) WHat % of hands he raises to $25 folds to a push?
2) What range of hands does he call a push with.

Then do the trivial calculation using pokerstove and a hand calculator.

I think the % in 1) is very low. And the range in 2) is not as tight as you would think. Try out some combinations and see the results. The answer might be illuminating.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow. I figured this would be a perfect spot. He has shown he's a donkey (he 4-bet-pushed with bottom two when I raised PF on an AKT board) and he's shown that he's aggressive PF (3 betting a caller and a raiser).

What situations DO you look for when pushing AK PF because, like I said, this seems perfect.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you cannot be certain that his postflop aggressiveness and looseness directly translate to preflop aggression. And the thing about seeing him 3-bet preflop before, well that could have just been a good hand... Since you haven't seen him get out of line 3-betting preflop yet, this play is pretty risky. I would no doubt push if I thought he was doing this with junk a lot of the time.

There are spots to push AK preflop. This situation most often occurs when the villain has 50bb or less. In a cash game, I find the value of pushing AK preflop comes from when dominated hands call, not from FE, and dominated aces don't call often enough with deep stacks from my experience.

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
In a cash game, I find the value of pushing AK preflop comes from when dominated hands call, not from FE, and dominated aces don't call often enough with deep stacks from my experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly the situation I was going for. I didn't WANT FE, I wanted him to call, knowing I was almost for sure either a coinflip OR way ahead. I'm not afraid of the variance of flipping a coin for $150.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't WANT FE,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah you do. FE can make the difference between this being marginal/borderline and +EV.

[RED FACE]

yeah, I reckon, like the others, this is very wrong. If you don't want FE what hands is he calling with that you're ahead of? AQs. Nothing else really. If he's a super donk and will call w A7s you will undoubtable get his money later anyway so there's no need to take this shot when you are not possitive. The only great thing about this push is fold equity vs 88-QQ and AK. If you run into AA or KK which are the most likely calls then you will suffer massive losses of course. This is hardly a coin flip. The history you provided does suggest that you could be way ahead here but the question is how can you play it profitably from this point. The only way is by folding I think. Like others have said you need to confirm him as a super donk preflop before you jam this. Then, you can be confident he will be calling w AXs enough time to make up for your disadvantage when he has 88-AA.