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  #1  
Old 05-09-2005, 11:35 PM
oaktoon oaktoon is offline
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Default Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?

live tourney-- 5 hands into a final table. I had no prior experience playing either of the two in question, as we had been at different tables all night.

Roughly 45K total chips. I am in 3rd or 4th place with approx. 5500; one stack is about 7500 and another 8500. Tourney pays 4, but needless to say, i am not playing for 4th place.

Blinds 300-600.

I am UTG and dealt AKo. Previous initial raise at this blind level had been 1500. I raise to 2000.

Fold to MP2, who has biggest stack-- he calls;

Fold to SB, who is short stacked with about 3800 chips. He pushes all-in.

I call, big stack calls.

Flop is 3 rags with two clubs. I check, big stack puts me all in. i call.

Hands shown; me with AKo; big stack with AKclubs; Small blind with QQ.

You know where this is going, right?

No ace, no king, no queen, club on the river and big stack knocks us both out.

Critique my play.

I could have limped, but at that stage I wanted to isolate somebody or steal the pot, and not get into a multi-handed pot.

I could have folded after the QQ went all-in, but I was pot committed and that call still left me with 1700 chips. I read him for a smaller pair so I knew it was pretty much a coin flip. i read big boy for AK or AQ all the way-- and even with the threat of a flush draw, i don't see how I fold after he pushed me.

Thoughts??
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  #2  
Old 05-09-2005, 11:43 PM
yecul yecul is offline
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Default Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?

[ QUOTE ]
I am in 3rd or 4th place with approx. 5500

Blinds 300-600.

I am UTG and dealt AKo. Previous initial raise at this blind level had been 1500. I raise to 2000.

Fold to MP2, who has biggest stack-- he calls;

Fold to SB, who is short stacked with about 3800 chips. He pushes all-in.


[/ QUOTE ]

You have ~10bb and could have just pushed. Your raise represented ~35% of your stack. Once the other guy goes all-in after your call and a raise, I don't like just calling. That's over half your stack in the middle here. Just put the rest in and try to isolate.

I really don't see how 1) all three of you get your money in and 2) you go broke in this spot.

You eventually got it all in and I guess the result ended up being the same. There was so much in the pot that you couldn't fold and leave yourself with the last 1700 or so even when you're probably drawing to 6 outs at best.
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  #3  
Old 05-10-2005, 12:03 AM
oaktoon oaktoon is offline
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Default Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?

fair enough, but if I had pushed pre-flop, I'm 99% certain result would have been same.

If I had pushed big boy after QQ went all-in, I'm 99.9% certain result would have been same. Might he have put me on AA or KK? I sincerely doubt it.
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  #4  
Old 05-10-2005, 12:22 AM
2005 2005 is offline
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Default Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?

You're being results oriented... It doesn't matter whether things would have been the same. What we're saying is that these are the best plays for the situation. You should have open-pushed. When you didn't, you should have put your stack in once the other guy pushed.

Gavin
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  #5  
Old 05-10-2005, 01:08 AM
oaktoon oaktoon is offline
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Default Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?

I disagree with the open push.

Most likely result of that move is that I get called by smaller pair from a short stack. Or simply steal the pot. And if it's earlier in table than one of the big stacks, might get a second caller playing pot odds.

Whereas the likely result of the bet I made is a call with another Ace-hand (which happened, of course) or perhaps a smaller pair. I can still get out of that hand after the flop. I couldn't if I opened with a push.

Having said that, i think you are right about my call post QQ pushing-- at that point it was as likely that big stack had an ace with a smaller kicker-- suited-- as it was that he had AKsuited.
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  #6  
Old 05-10-2005, 01:11 AM
billyjex billyjex is offline
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Default Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?

dude, this is such an easy open push. this is not even debatable.
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  #7  
Old 05-10-2005, 01:46 AM
WiSeIVIaN WiSeIVIaN is offline
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Default Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?

You became pot committed at any rate, even only putting in 35% of ur stack in on the raise and then eventually going all in. If u push Pre-flop u aren't left with having to make bad decisions like putting the rest of ur chips in Post-flop after 3 rags come and ur confident that ur against a pocket pair. Post-flop that gives u a 25% chance to hit and win the pot, which isn't exactly optimal. Plus in this situation, stealing the blinds is not a bad thing, confrontation is overrated with large blinds. Thats why the correct move is the push PreFlop.
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  #8  
Old 05-10-2005, 02:34 AM
oaktoon oaktoon is offline
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Default Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?

OK, let's revisit.

I'm UTG in a 9 handed table. Dealt AKo.

Odds are remote that someone else has AK, and even more remote that it would be suited.

Odds are good that someone has Ax.

Odds are remote that someone has QQ or JJ.

Odds are decent that someone has a pair, and it will probably be a shorter stack than me.

Odds of neither of the above occurring-- Ax or a pair-- are probably in the range of 1/5.

So if I push from the get-go, I'd say 20% of the time I steal the blinds. That's an EV of 180 (900 x .20)

Another 20% of the time, there's an ace or a pair, but no call. That's an EV of 180.

60% of the time I am called-- let's call it 30% with just a pair, 20% of the time with Ax or another top hand such as KQ suited, 10% with both. Of the latter, the odds of the precise scenario (or even JJ instead of QQ) I was hit with tonight are probably no better than 1 in 200.

I'm a slight dog to the pair-- and it will be a short stack (say average 4000K) the vast majority of the time.

45% x 4000 x .30= EV 540

55% x 4000 x .30= EV Minus 660 (and of course occasionally I will be knocked out of the tournament.

I'm now up 240 in EV.

20% of the time I'm called with an Ax or KQ suited. I'm a pretty big favorite here-- let's say 2 to 1 on average. A bit more likely that the big stacks play here, so let's round up the net gain to 5000.

5000 X .66 x .20= EV 666

5000 X .33 X .20= Minus EV of 333

I'm now up 573.

And finally in the double situation-- 10% of the time-- I'm about 35% (occasionally a big stack will be on pot odds without an ace or a pair) to win the hand. And now you must round up the money wagered even more to 5200, given the greater likelihood of a big stack playing. But I could nearly double up.

SO:

.10 x .33 x 9500 EV 317

.10 x .66 x 5200 Minus EV of 343

I'm up 547 with an open push.


Playing it my way obviously it will often lead to the same result. I think i steal the pot almost as much as above. I think I face a multiple pot more, perhaps nearly twice as much.

The question is:

can I avoid a defeat (and possibly a knockout) more easily in the heads-up situations by playing the flop better?? And can I still get an opponent in if an ace or king hits on the flop? I'm too tired to do that set of calculations-- if someone can show me that my EV is worse that way, I'll concede the point. Remember that defeat means knockout.
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  #9  
Old 05-10-2005, 03:10 AM
ThrillFactor ThrillFactor is offline
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Default Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?

[ QUOTE ]

Roughly 45K total chips. I am in 3rd or 4th place with approx. 5500; one stack is about 7500 and another 8500. Tourney pays 4, but needless to say, i am not playing for 4th place.

Blinds 300-600.

I am UTG and dealt AKo. Previous initial raise at this blind level had been 1500. I raise to 2000.

Fold to MP2, who has biggest stack-- he calls;

Fold to SB, who is short stacked with about 3800 chips. He pushes all-in.

I call,

big stack calls.

[/ QUOTE ]





Let's count the errors, shall we.

At least the SB played his hand correctly.
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  #10  
Old 05-10-2005, 03:13 AM
four eight suited four eight suited is offline
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Default Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?

I agree with Gavin on this one. Open push is the way to go here given the stack size.
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