Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20

[neon]

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Are you expecting calls from 97? A4? AK?

He's a good player.

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Expecting calls from 97, A4, 43 and perhaps AK . . .

But it really sounds as if this guy's pretty apt to bluff push w/ busted diamonds or air to represent 56, so I guess it comes down to if you think he's calling you w/ a hand you beat often enough to make a river raise worth it vs. the risk that he bluffs you out w/ a worse hand.

Seems pretty close against this guy. Maybe the idea of folding to a three-bet is a bad idea, because of the possibility he's going to try to push you around? So maybe it's better to either call his river bet or raise and call a push?

Also, the "strength" he shows kinda concerns me that he might have 56 and is looking for a raise from you. Kinda seems like a reverse tell, no?

Good post.