basis flop question

cockandbull · #1 04-09-2005, 12:24 AM

I'm wondering if these hands are a simple as i think they are...hero raises doesn't he? Can a case be made for waiting until the turn to raise here?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 bets, Hero raises

cockandbull · #2 04-09-2005, 12:58 AM

I know this is boring and easy, but i'd like to get some confirmation and then i can let this thread fall off the 2+2 scale.

harry

Bill C · #3 04-09-2005, 01:06 AM

Looks good to me!

mr pink · #4 04-09-2005, 01:15 AM

this is a pretty safe board for tptk, there are no draws out there. the button has at most 3 outs in this spot (the kings), unless he has a flush draw. so if he calls (w/out a flush draw), he'd be making a making a mistake getting only 9.5 to 1.

with a flush draw, he really doesn't mind the flop raise too bad. but he'd have to hate a turn raise.

so yeah, i think waiting till the turn has some merit here. although it's something i overlook a lot of the time.

jclin · #5 04-09-2005, 01:19 AM

Raise on turn still won't get rid of flush draw, especially if button has flush draw and UTG+1 has kq or something like that. Raise now for value.

Even if HU, this is still a raise.

Now, if it is Q32 RAINBOW, then you have a different story. Raise on turn (even with a K or J popping) is, in fact, a great play.

cockandbull · #6 04-09-2005, 01:19 AM

how often once called, do you think i'm going to be bet into on the turn or does that really matter here?

mr pink · #7 04-09-2005, 01:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise on turn still won't get rid of flush draw, especially if button has flush draw and UTG+1 has kq or something like that. Raise now for value.

Even if HU, this is still a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

no flush draw is ever folding. that is not the point.

no offense, but raising this HU would kinda suck against most opponents.

jclin · #8 04-09-2005, 01:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise on turn still won't get rid of flush draw, especially if button has flush draw and UTG+1 has kq or something like that. Raise now for value.

Even if HU, this is still a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

no flush draw is ever folding. that is not the point.

no offense, but raising this HU would kinda suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that I think about it, raising it HU is quite sucky.

I guess turn raise on a safe card is more +EV, but flush draw still gets pot odds (esp. if UTG+1 has draw). So a turn raise only changed flush draw from +EV (flop) to less +EV. It is still +EV. Sorry, I'm not sure exactly how a flush draw is "not the point".

How about call-call-raise on safe card? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

cockandbull · #9 04-09-2005, 01:47 AM

I think the point is that it is more likely that an UTG limp is a hand we are ahead of like a PP or a worse q like KQs/QJs so by raising i'm knocking out most hands he will hold. I'm just wondering whether its a good idea not to raise b/c once called most ppl will check fold unimproved so i might as well charge them now. I still not sure which is best...and although this has made the problem a little clearer i'd like some more comments if people dont mind.

mr pink · #10 04-09-2005, 01:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Now that I think about it, raising it HU is quite sucky.

I guess turn raise on a safe card is more +EV, but flush draw still gets pot odds (esp. if UTG+1 has draw). So a turn raise only changed flush draw from +EV (flop) to less +EV. It is still +EV. Sorry, I'm not sure exactly how a flush draw is "not the point".

How about call-call-raise on safe card?

[/ QUOTE ]

"not the point" was in regards to your comment "raise on turn still won't get rid of flush draw", meaning that the flush draw is not going to fold... so that's not really a concern here. hope i didn't come off as a dick [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

the thing about raising a turn safe card is that the flush draw has about 35% equity on the flop, with 3 players each putting in bets, the flop raises actually benefit the flush draw the same as they do your tptk. the only person who is really losing out on the flop bets is the original bettor (assuming we have him beat).

but if the turn doesn't make his flush, his equity drops to 17% because there is only 1 card left instead of 2 while your equity jumps up significantly (i'm not sure how much). yes, he will still have odds to call the turn raise (it's damn near impossible for a flopped 4 flush not to have odds to see the river), but he is getting a much worse price on his draw (2 big bets) when his equity has been cut in half.

by raising a safe turn, you take the most off of each opponent... of course you have to be pretty sure you'll get bet into again.