PLO8 $100 Kings

[sy_or_bust]

Reads:

UTG+2 is semi-loose/Aggressive (35/9), raising many hands preflop from all positions.

MP1 epitomizes weak-tight.

Button is terrible, a huge gambler (80/20) who calls too much with weak hands.

SB is loose-passive (55/0)

$100 PL Omaha Hi/Lo
Total number of players : 10
Seat 3: SB ( $33.28 )
Seat 7: UTG+1 ( $117 )
Seat 9: MP1 ( $120.53 )
Seat 4: Hero ( $107.30 )
Seat 10: Buttons ( $50.74 )
Seat 6: UTG ( $107 )
Seat 8: UTG+2 ( $81.50 )
SB posts small blind [$0.50].
Hero posts big blind [$1].
UTG+1 posts big blind + dead [$1.50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
UTG folds.
UTG+1 checks.
UTG+2 raises [$3].
MP1 calls [$3]
some folds
Buttons calls [$3]
SB calls [$2.50].
Hero calls [$2]
UTG+1 calls [$2].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
SB checks.
Hero checks.
UTG+1 checks.
UTG+2 bets [$15].
MP1 folds.
Buttons calls [$15].
SB folds.
Hero raises [$77.60]

My thoughts: The flop is drawless, and after my check (obvious?) I'm facing a continuation bet and a fishy call. This was not unexpected. Now, I have an overpair to the board which figures to be best a good portion of the time, and a low draw that is probably not best but will sometimes steal the low if a deuce or trey falls. I can scoop this pot, or win it right here.

Also, as per our discussion yesterday, I figured I had excellent chances to fold AA-rag-rag with the pot-sized reraise.

So, I get aggressive with kings and a weak low draw. Thoughts?

[Jorge10]

Your hand screams, chop me up guys, you have a really bad high hand, a pair aint holding on for nothing, if he called 15 he is in it for the long haul, the other guy obviously aint folding either, you have no low, if you think A/4 with that preflop action is a low on that flop you are mistaken. You are essentially pushing a pair of kings no low and hoping they hold on. Also you might even be behind, you said one of them took a lot of flops and gambled no? What if he shows you a small set or even the set of queens? Raising with a two way hand to limit the field and hopefully get something is normally a good idea, but in this spot against a full table you have an extremely weak high hand and no real low. Not a great play by any means, however theres always the off chance both have lows and miss and you win with a pair of kings, but its not something I like to push my stack in to hope for.

[sy_or_bust]

It may or may not be a bad play, but your post is really odd.

1) Paying $15 does not even come close to meaning a player is willing to call a $80 raise. This is a standard continuation bet from UTG+2, with a single caller. No way in hell do these guys plan on calling a pot-sized raise 100% of the time.

2) I don't think A4 is the best low (I say this), but it will sometimes beat out high only hands that might call my bet, plus it will sometimes back into the best low with a deuce or trey.

3) Loose callers are A-OK with me. That would imply opponents willing to call with a nut low draw and meager high chances, when I am way ahead. If I get called by A2 with a queen or worse, this is a +EV situation for me (especially when the two-pair outs, if they come, often counterfeit an opponent's low hand). I would like this to happen, not fear it. It is difficult to beat my hand both ways, which is why I want to be heads-up.

I guess I just don't agree with your analysis at all.

[emptyshell]

Might be a good move heads up. Against a large field, I don't feel good about a pair of Ks, or the A4.

[sy_or_bust]

I agree, but is this really a field? The only opponent left to act is UTG+1, who posted preflop and checked the flop.

Anyway, what would you expect to call the raise? I'm thinking many worse hands might call it, while the likelihood of being crushed is miniscule. What am I missing?

[emptyshell]

With six people seeing the flop, you will usually be up against at least two pair, probably a set. A2 is all but certain considering preflop action.

[Ribbo]

Yes but if you have 2 pair, are you calling that raise?
I'm not. That's his point.

[Jorge10]

I was gone for the weekend, anyway from the hand history I know one thing for sure, the button will call any amount and is chasing with the low obviously because half his stack is already in, so that leaves the other 2, one guy you know nothing, the other might or might not call the reraise, heres my reasoning, you know you are going to get called no?

Why gamble with a pair of kings not knowing if its good, the button had 50 left at the start of the hand 18 of those are already in so hes calling, when I have no chance of scooping then theres no point in risking my stack, thats the way I feel about it. You wont scoop the guy unless a 2 and a 3 comes or no low is made and even then who knows, its more likely he will scoop you with some weird two pair on the turn or river. Thats why I said it was a bad play. Because he has you for low and your essentially hoping the kings hold on for high, not only that, but thats against one guy, there are still 2 other players that you still dont know whats going to happen with, the play you made is great when there are very few taking a flop, but with such a large field you will get chopped more than you will actually win anything.