Implied odds?

[POKhER]

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Ignore preflop, and the crazy flop call.

Turn: (8BB)(3players) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG Bets, MP2 Raises, Hero....

4Outs(Yes all in the deck/clean)


11:2 to us, so we now say 22:2 and we need 11bets on the river when we hit meaning even if utg calls (12BB, then caps river with MP2 12BB+4BB+4BB = 20BB(Excluding ours)

Gut Shot Odds to hit:22 to 2 to call(We double, as its been raised)
Current Pot Odds: 11:2 to us
Potential Bets Won:UTG Call + (UTG River Cap + Mp2 River Cap) = 9BB
Final Pot 11+ 9BB = 20BB

22 to 2 to call, 20BB implied = NOT ENOUGH = FOLD.


We still do not make enough.



Now with my thinking it was:
11:2 > 5.5:1 we need 5BB by river.

Gut Shot Odds to hit:10.5 to 1 to call
Current Pot Odds: 5.50:1 (11:2 to us)
Potential Bets Won:UTG Call + (UTG River Cap + Mp2 River Cap) = 9BB
Final Pot 11+ 9BB = 20BB

20BB implied, 10.5:1 needed we now make 9.5BB profit.(WRONG)

---------------------------------------------------

As you can see, My example is wrong but looks so profitable and your example is correct and is not profitable.

I conclude im a complete newbie who doesn't even know implied odds fully.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
11:2 to us, so we now say 22:2 and we need 11bets on the river when we hit meaning even if utg calls (12BB, then caps river with MP2 12BB+4BB+4BB = 20BB(Excluding ours)

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess you've got the 22:2 number from taking 10.5:1 and multiplying it with 2, and than adding 1 because you want to make a profit, right? In that case your thinking is correct, but don't need to add anything really.

[POKhER]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
11:2 to us, so we now say 22:2 and we need 11bets on the river when we hit meaning even if utg calls (12BB, then caps river with MP2 12BB+4BB+4BB = 20BB(Excluding ours)

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess you've got the 22:2 number from taking 10.5:1 and multiplying it with 2, and than adding 1 because you want to make a profit, right? In that case your thinking is correct, but don't need to add anything really.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was actually a typo LOL

Thanks for your help Nick, I'm going to review some hands where i may have miscalculated implied odds(and got lucky)

Although i feel stupid, I'm happy to have learnt i was wrong on implied odds.

I'm trying to learn advanced concepts when i dont have the basics implace [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img](i thought i did).

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought this was easy when I played it, but now I'm not sure. No reads, first hand at this table - GT+ not opened yet.

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero (poster) checks, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (15 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, Hero ???

I know I don't have pot odds to call this, but in retrospect I'm wondering if I had implied odds? If the king falls, I should clean up on the river. How do I think this one out?

[/ QUOTE ]

In this case, I'm pretty sure you don't (you're just drawing to the Jack, right?).

---

On the turn, the pot is 7.5:1, when the guy bets, it's 8.5:1... you would have correct implied odds most of the time if the other guy just called, but when he bets, it's not 10.5:2 (5.25:1).

Now, if the guy in UTG calls (which he's not guaranteed or anything), then it's 11.5:2... still a long ways from your required pot odds.

There's also a chance that you will chop the pot if you hit.

Keep in mind that the pot is going to be raked, too, right? So you have to take the rake out of the pot odds at this point.

To figure out if you're going to have correct implied odds, you figure out how much action you're going to get on the river and add that figure to the current pot odds.

You don't know if this is going to be three-bet and/or capped behind you when you call the turn, either, which further dilutes your odds here...

Also, check out the positions of the BB and UTG+2...

Supposing a bunch of people get to the river, the guy that's going to likely bet the river is sitting on your direct right, meaning that you'll have to call the river, going for overcalls... this puts you in position to make a mistake when you would have gotten excessive action from utg+2 and when no one else calls...

So, you should fold this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

--Dave.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, I had no choice on the PF post (just sat down, remember?)

[/ QUOTE ]

it's called waiting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey man. I just made a post on this subject. Reply to it with your best numbers before you just follow the herd.
[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

And by the way, this isn't just in reference to you specifically, it's a huge pet peeve of mine that practically everyone on here says, "Post in the CO and not in MP3," and I have yet to determine why this is the case.

I think I made a post on it about a year ago or half a year ago and there was no conclusion.

--Dave.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I could have waited, but I've got limited playing time tonight and the "post or wait" argument is a whole other question that's been discussed to death here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Generally when you post in mp3 or earlier, you should mention that you're purposely making a -ev decision for the sake of play-time, just for self-defense. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

However, I'm kinda curious as to where this has been discussed in depth... did you mean in this thread?

[POKhER]

[ QUOTE ]

On the turn, the pot is 7.5:1, when the guy bets, it's 8.5:1... you would have correct implied odds most of the time if the other guy just called, but when he bets, it's not 10.5:2 (5.25:1).

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey david, with your "10.5:2 and (5.25:1)" are you making the same mistake i made above? (Check out my post then nicks correction etc).

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not true, the odds you're getting are 11.5:2 NOT 5.75:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

The rest of your points are great, but I'd like to point out that these ratios are equivalent. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The way you'd look at it is that you have to recover about 5 units, which in this decision is about 10bb.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

On the turn, the pot is 7.5:1, when the guy bets, it's 8.5:1... you would have correct implied odds most of the time if the other guy just called, but when he bets, it's not 10.5:2 (5.25:1).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your help.

I'm pretty sure I've addressed these issues, though.

[DavidC]

re: results in white: nice table!