Implied odds?

[DRD66]

aha! Read this quick, seems to be the info I was looking for, thanks. Can't digest while playing, but I'll come back and study the numbers when I'm done. Appreciate it.

[Nick Royale]

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1) Just made the jump from succesful .25/.5 player to getting killed at .5/1 (like many others it would seem) and am desparately trying to find the leaks

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If you had called this turn it would have been a huge mistake. I guess you need to start learning how to calculate odds. And the preflop call isn't anything to be proud about either.

[Nick Royale]

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Anyhow concerning if you can call or fold...
We're getting 11.50:2 to call, 5.75:1

We need 10.5:1 to call so must pick up atleast 5BB's to make it .25BB profitable.

For me, This is a fold simply because as said you may split with another Ten and will you even get 5BBs?

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This is not true, the odds you're getting are 11.5:2 NOT 5.75:1. There's an important differance. The odds against hitting the gut-shot is 21:2, thus you'll have to make 9.5BB on the river ( 21 - 11.5 = 9.5 ). Calling here would be really really terrible.

Not sure on the lost equity, but I also would post in MP3 unless I was multi-tabling.

There is no way you can call preflop after a raise though.

Flop is correct, turn is a 100% fold... its not even remotely close.

Ok I will try to explain implied odds here to the best of my ability.

The BB is betting from early position, this could mean an attempted value flop checkraise gone wrong, which could easily mean a 3bet is coming behind you. I would say getting to the river here is going to cost you on average ~2.5BB.

So your current odds are 2.5BB to win a pot of 15BB. Judging by the mass amount of people playing, I would say your K outs are dirty, and further reduced by the Kh that may give another player a backdoor flush, giving you on average ~3 outs for the K. Realistically no other cards in the deck are giving you this pot.

So basically using normal pot odds your getting about a 6% chance of winning the pot, which means you need to be getting about 15.5 to 1 on your moneys. Unfortunately, currently you are only getting 2.5/15 or 5 to 1.

However, judging by the aggression on the turn, you get extra IMPLIED odds from the bets that you can win on the river. Here, the chances of another T staying in the pot and chopping it are roughly cancelled out by the chances of an emotional or overzealous set/2P 3 betting you. So we will say one bet and one raise give you another 2 bets from at least one, maybe two runners, for on average ~3 in total.

Suddenly your 5 to 1 can be bumped up to 8 to 1 with the extra implied river odds. (Keeping in mind that your implied odds would be much larger if your outs were more hidden, a passive player suddenly firing with 4 high cards to a straight on the board is incredibly transparent).

So here... even with the implied odds, you are still absolutely nowhere near the odds that you need to make this call. Not even close.

As an extra note, try not to be results oriented here. Remember the 92% of the time that K wouldnt have come that this hand would not have been posted.

Hope I helped, I dont think what ive said is 100% accurate, so corrections would be welcome, but the general idea is there.

[POKhER]

Have i gone wrong in the very basics of poker then [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

11.50:2 is the same as 5.75:1 No?

So whenever theres a raise, we must keep using the X:2 ratio, we can't simplify it down to X:1 ? Therefore we then must double the odds of hitting out next card i.e. FLush Draw 4.1:1, Now becomes 8.2:2 ?

Why have you mentioned GS odds at 21:2 and not 10.5:1?

If this is the case, maybe i've made huge -EV calls in the past and if so, I need further feedback on this.


Please explain further. Apoligises to the Original Poster(OP) if i'm wrong.

[Nick Royale]

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Have i gone wrong in the very basics of poker then [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

11.50:2 is the same as 5.75:1 No?

So whenever theres a raise, we must keep using the X:2 ratio, we can't simplify it down to X:1 ? Therefore we then must double the odds of hitting out next card i.e. FLush Draw 4.1:1, Now becomes 8.2:2 ?

Why have you mentioned GS odds at 21:2 and not 10.5:1?

If this is the case, maybe i've made huge -EV calls in the past and if so, I need further feedback on this.


Please explain further. Apoligises to the Original Poster(OP) if i'm wrong.

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I'm sorry for not being more informative in my first post. It's only when we're calculating implied odds we need to take into consideration how many bets we're calling (because that's what we're doing).

If you think about it it's pretty logic, the more bets you put into the pot when calling, the more bets you'll have to make when hitting. You could also calculate the way you did and multiply the "answer" with the number of bets you need to put into the pot. This is instead of changing 10.5:1 to 21:2.

So I guess you could say the only time when 10:2 isn't the same as 5:1 is when you calculate implied odds. Hope I made myself clear, if not just ask.

[POKhER]

I'd often get confused when writing out implied odds and i think you may have discovered my error.

It was a case of "Im sure ive gone wrong, but where?". You're post does make sense and ill write out a few examples later so if you could clarify these that would be appreciated.

Implied odds i thought was easy to learn, it seems i've made a fundermental error.

Hopefully my error and post here has helped the OP(Original Poster) to further understand them.

Will bump this later,
Thanks.

[Nick Royale]

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Will bump this later

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I might not be online then, but PM me a link if you post some examples and I will take a look.

*grunch* I dont call the preflop raise.

I fold on the turn. I only see 3 outs that guarantee the nuts (Kh makes a possible flush) and with all these people in, you're bound to be splitting the pot with someone even if you get one of the other kings. I can't call here.

[DRD66]

Haven't had a chance to read all this yet, as I'm still playing (and holding my own, yea!) at the table where this all started. Part of getting my .5/1 game together involves not trying to do other stuff while playing and PAY ATTENTION TO THE GAME. Looks like good info from all, and I'll read it completly when I get done playing.

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As an extra note, try not to be results oriented here. Remember the 92% of the time that K wouldnt have come that this hand would not have been posted.

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This is always good advice, esp. since I find myself falling back into bad habits when I moved up. This forums biggest benefit for me is it gives me an alternative to being results oriented - I can ask about something I don't understand and find a better way to re-evaluate a hand I wasn't sure about. Thanks all.

Masochist in me is a little bummed I didn't get flamed on more, though. ;-)