Good thread on slightly +EV all ins?

zoobird · #1 09-07-2005, 01:21 PM

Can anyone point me to one of the many good threads that discuss whether/when to take slightly +EV all-ins? I'm constantly getting knocked out of tournaments all-in with QQ vs. Ax/Kx and can't help feeling that if I'm even moderately better than the average player in these tournaments I would be better off playing more smaller pots instead of trying to double up repeatedly. I think most of the top 2+2 players would tell me I'm wrong, so I'd like to see why.

Superfluous Man · #2 09-07-2005, 01:37 PM

QQ vs. Ax (where x is not another ace or a king) is a 2:1 favorite to double up if you both get your money in preflop. This is not a small edge, period. You are not good enough to pass it up. But that's ok, nobody is.

(A more interesting hypothetical is how big an edge you could pass up in a tournament if you had some sort of magic glasses that let you see the exact two cards all your opponents were holding every hand. Maybe this has been discussed before. But I digress.)

Think of it this way: you can wait around for situations to arise where you'll be 3:1 or better to double up. But by the time you've done so, your stack has likely dwindled to the point where doubling up will not get you much past where you started originally.

Maybe someone else can elaborate and explain better than I have.

Edit: Also, you're going to need to double up many times to win the tournament, or even to make the final table. Would you rather risk all your chips as a 2:1 favorite (metagame considerations, like how you'll be able to bully people with your big stack, aside) or would you rather be a 3:1 in several dozen individual pots that are worth, oh, 10% of your stack? Which do you think is better for your overall tournament EV? Which do you think is better for your $/hr?

zoobird · #3 09-07-2005, 01:39 PM

Didn't realize it was as big 2:1. Never mind my specific scenario then - your digression is much more interesting if you feel like hijacking the thread or pointing me to one of the threads I'm sure exist on the topic.

Exitonly · #4 09-07-2005, 02:34 PM

were you using the x's in your scenario to denote the suit?
you wrote Ax/Kx..

wer eyou trying to say AK suited/unsuited... or just A+low card, or K+low card.

zoobird · #5 09-07-2005, 02:40 PM

Low card. I'm playing in freerolls, so this happens surprisingly often early on. It also happens later on when I'm short stacked and getting called by someone who is also short stacked or may assume I'm trying to steal the blinds.

Exitonly · #6 09-07-2005, 02:41 PM

aha ok... yea you're a big favorite there.. no worries keep doing that.

QQ vs AK is the 'slightly +EV' and that's not even that slight, i'll take it every time.

#7 09-07-2005, 02:42 PM

You should regularly take the +EV situations in normal online MTT's, as you need to accumulate chips as quickly as possible, and doubling up through a 13-to-10 coinflip is often the very best you will be getting. Even taking the 10-to-13 end is often acceptable, and if your M is dwindling its not even a question. Unless the format of the MTT has much much deeper stacks and longer time limits which allow for more play, then you can theoretically give up on some marginal situations. As for queens vs one overcard, that was already explained.

zoobird · #8 09-07-2005, 02:59 PM

Not in a position to disagree with you, and I know that most of the top posters would agree with you, but intuitively this feels wrong. If the best one can generally hope for is a series of 13-to-10 'coin flips', I don't see how its possible to get the kind of consistent tournament results that some 2+2 posters seem to get. Again, you guys have me totally convinced about my original scenario, but in more marginal situations this is surprising...lets say QQ vs. AK early in a tournament where I believe I'm in the top 10-15% of players.

Exitonly · #9 09-07-2005, 03:01 PM

no no, thats not the best you cna hope for... a good player will find better situations, and accumlate chips w/o being all in.

But you are going to have to win a bunch of 13/10's, and some 10/13's and worse to win a big tournament...

it's why good players only have an ITM% of 10%

zoobird · #10 09-07-2005, 03:09 PM

A couple weeks ago some of the stronger players recorded all their tournament results here in a spreadsheet...I think you may have participated. I didn't calculate it, but it sure looked like there were a number of people who were WAY over 10% ITM. Are you saying that this was just because of the small sample size?