No substitute for luck sometimes...

[BTirish]

I made a sick catch on the river here. Does anyone play this differently? Is calling 3rd lame? If I don't catch A, Q, or 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I'm obviously folding 4th. Seat 2 had been raising my bringin often, and Seat 8 seemed to be pretty loose. Is the 3-bet on 5th bad? When he caps it, I do figure it's most likely he has a set of K's... but I can't totally eliminate K's up with 8's, or rolled 8's to start. So when he catches the 8 on 6th, my only hope is that he has 8's full and I can fill up on the river. Do I let this one go on 6th? I made the absolutely sick catch... the pot was so big (with the loose 3rd caller) that I figured I had to check/call it down on 6th and fold unimproved on 7th.

7 Card Stud High ($1/$2), Ante $0.10, Bring-In $0.50 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls

4th Street - (3.70 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls

5th Street - (4.85 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises___raises
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls___calls

6th Street - (16.85 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___calls

River - (19.85 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___raises $1 to $5 and is all-in
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___raises
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___raises___calls

Total pot: (28.35 BB)

[kschellenger]

I wouldn't call 3rd but after that I think you played it fine.

[bigredlemon]

He's getting 1 to 6 on 3rd, and he definetly has more equity than that. As for fourth, it looks like a good time to check raise to me.

[7stud]

[ QUOTE ]
He's getting 1 to 6 on 3rd

[/ QUOTE ]
What is that, and how did you get it? The only way I can see coming up with a figure like that is by proposing that there is some card he can catch on 4th street that will win him a $6 pot. Is there a card that will win him the pot on 4th street? Are there even two perfect cards that will win him the pot by 5th street?

[ QUOTE ]
and he definetly has more equity than that


[/ QUOTE ]
What is his equity? The way I see it, he has a poor starting hand, and he called a raise, and in the long run he will lose lots of money playing hands like that because the payoff when he wins will be smaller than all the money he loses playing hands like that--even though experience is currently teaching the opposite lesson.

Sheesh, what a monster hand!

[RayGarlington]

6 to 1 on third
antes .80; bring in .50; call .50; raise 1.00 = 2.80 in pot

it costs him .50 to call the raise vs 2.80 already in the pot which is close to 6 to 1.

Equity of an Axx 2 flush runs about .2 and higher against most pairs

[7stud]

[ QUOTE ]
6 to 1 on third
antes .80; bring in .50; call .50; raise 1.00 = 2.80 in pot

it costs him .50 to call the raise vs 2.80 already in the pot which is close to 6 to 1.

Equity of an Axx 2 flush runs about .2 and higher against most pairs

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the explanation, Ray. I was thinking it was a $1 to call the raise.

As for the equity, are you saying he had a greater than 20% chance of winning the hand? When, I run AcQc2d against a pair, I get around a 40% chance of winning the hand.

That leads me to my final question: what relation do the immediate pot odds have to the odds of winning the hand on 7th street? That's like comparing apples to oranges. If you look at what the immediate pot odds are offering, then you need to compare those odds to the odds of winning the hand on the next card--not the odds of winning the hand with four more cards to come. And, since there is no card that will win the hand on 4th street, how are the immediate pot odds relevant?

[RayGarlington]

[ QUOTE ]
are you saying he had a greater than 20% chance of winning the hand? When, I run AcQc2d against a pair, I get around a 40% chance of winning the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I was say 20%+ equity, but was pitting him against 2 pairs rather than 1.

[ QUOTE ]
what relation do the immediate pot odds have to the odds of winning the hand on 7th street?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your 'necessary' outs vs the immediate pot odds is the best information you have at the time you are deciding to bet; however, if you really want to call anyway you can use your powers of rationalization and knowledge of implied odds, effective odds (etc) not to mention your feelings that you are about to HIT to go ahead and make the call/raise.

[beta1607]

[ QUOTE ]
I figured I had to check/call it down on 6th and fold unimproved on 7th.


[/ QUOTE ]

Never, ever ever ever ever ever ever fold the river here unimproved. Also, raise 6th.

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I figured I had to check/call it down on 6th and fold unimproved on 7th.


[/ QUOTE ]

Never, ever ever ever ever ever ever fold the river here unimproved. Also, raise 6th.

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, looks to me like his opponent has kings full on 6th, no?

[beta1607]

Actually you are right, looking back I think Kings full is more likely on 6th then aces/kings up. I still stand by my other advice about never folding this river though, the pot is far too big to lay down trips.

Beer, If you fill up would you raise 7th given your read?