Test your intuition (three handed SNG play)

[Bozeman]

"I suspect the numbers tell you more of a story than they do some of the rest of us."

I think this is very true. In addition, there is the annoying factor that I like to figure out what I can figure out (the lure of the puzzle), and am not always able to apply it to play at the table.

As for this question, a lot depends on what your opponent will go allin with. If he would go allin with any two cards, then 37.5% is almost all hands in holdem (probably all hands in Omaha), folding only those hands whose high card is below 9 and whose low card is below 4 except for 35s. For 38.3%, cut out 64,54,52s,62s,and 72s. The marginal hand for 52.1% is J7s. For the extreme case, 64.7%, you need to only play pairs through 77, Apaint suited, and AK. This shows why going allin every hand is an effective strategy for the underdog (skillwise) as long as the blinds are reasonably large. It also shows that it is very hard to be twice as good as the opposition (with large blinds) unless they are folding too many hands.

Using allenciox's table of matchups, if your opponent would go allin with the top 40% (all pairs, A, K, Q9-QJ, Q5s-Q8s, J8s-JTs, JTo, T9s) at 52.1% you need A4s (KJo, 44) to call. At 38.3%, the cutoff is about T6s. For 42.9%, the cutoff is around QTo (K5s). As you can see, a 5% difference in win percentage can encompass a lot of hands if you are in the mediocre hand part of the list. However, this means that if you make mistakes with mediocre hands, they are likely to be small ones.

Craig