Free Money: Denver/KC under 49

[natedogg]

Last week I didn't play any totals because I didn't see any that really stood out for me.

But I do not believe this total.

Denver has scored all of 23 offensive points. They have scored two TDs so far. Even their vaunted kicker has been struggling.

They are in the bottom 1/3 of rushing teams right now, with 84 yards per game. There is something seriously wrong with the Denver.

On top of that, the KC defense has actually played solidly for two consecutive games, and against very good running teams no less. What is even more surprising is that the offense has not dominated the way it used to, even against a
woeful defense like the Raiders.

This total should be 37. Getting the under 49 is as close to free money as you'll get betting NFL games.

natedogg

[FishNChips]

great analysis nate.

what are your thoughts on the line for this game? Pinny has chiefs +3 (-114). this seems like a pretty nice line, your thoughts?

FishNChips

[handsome]

Uhh, I think you're forgetting about the MNF factor.

Baboom

I don't handicap, I just follow football and simply don't agree that this is "free money"

[Homesig]

Been looking at that myself.. Didn't Priest get dinged a bit last week as well??? I think the under bet is easily +70% chance to win.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Last week I didn't play any totals because I didn't see any that really stood out for me.

But I do not believe this total.

Denver has scored all of 23 offensive points. They have scored two TDs so far. Even their vaunted kicker has been struggling.

They are in the bottom 1/3 of rushing teams right now, with 84 yards per game. There is something seriously wrong with the Denver.

On top of that, the KC defense has actually played solidly for two consecutive games, and against very good running teams no less. What is even more surprising is that the offense has not dominated the way it used to, even against a
woeful defense like the Raiders.

This total should be 37. Getting the under 49 is as close to free money as you'll get betting NFL games.

natedogg

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm riding the KC under until people figure out that they actually have a defense this year. Same w/ the colts.

[lorinda]

Last three seasons (I'm just posting these as a possible line explanation, I certainly don't want to comment on this game either way at the moment)

'04 Chiefs 24-34 Broncos
'03 Chiefs 27-45 Broncos
'02 Chiefs 24-31 Broncos

Lori

[Gambler]

The Chiefs D has been pretty stingy in points allowed per game so far (8th in NFL) Meanwhile Denver's O has been misfiring on all cylinders up to this point. The game is in Denver though where they are much better. Still, looks like Chiefs 28-17 to me.

[tshort]

[ QUOTE ]

'04 Chiefs 24-34 Broncos
'03 Chiefs 27-45 Broncos

Denver and the Chiefs both had high-powered offenses and Chiefs had terrible defenses

'02 Chiefs 24-31 Broncos


[/ QUOTE ]

Chiefs won 45-17 at home last year. I don't think you can really consider games from two or three years ago.

The important facts are Denver's put up 15 ppg against some mediocre defenses and the Chiefs have limited two decent offenses to 12 ppg. I think the key is the Chiefs improvement in the secondary is limiting big pass plays, so opponents have to run more. We know the Chiefs are going to pound the ball with Holmes and Johnson. I think the clock is going to keep moving. These are some good reasons to pick under.

It is a litte scary that the total scores for MNF last year averaged 54 ppg. We know when the Chiefs and Broncos play they play to win -- by a lot.

I think under is a good pick, but not free money.

[West]

[ QUOTE ]
'04 Chiefs 24-34 Broncos

This was a preseason game.

Last year, the Chiefs lost 11-17 at Denver. Chiefs won 45-17 at home.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 45-17 is right, but I don't know where you're getting that 17-11. link link

[tshort]

You are correct. ESPN.com was incorrect.

I edited post.