Overcalls? X-post from HUSH

[SomethingClever]

I thought this hand was interesting, but maybe it's routine.

5/10 6-max

I have 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the BB. CO limps, SB completes, I check.

Flop comes 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked around.

Turn: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked around

River: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB bets. I call hoping to get a call out of CO. CO raises. SB calls. I just call.

Thoughts? Anyone bet the turn in this 1.5 BB monster pot?

[W. Deranged]

Nice hand.

1. I think going for overcalls on the river is correct. The LP opponent may call with very little here, hoping that everyone is very weak. If the EP player has been sandbagging a big hand, you don't put yourself in the position of facing a third river bet heads-up in a pot with basically no overlay.

2. I don't think there's much you can do once you get raised behind on the river. I'm sure you win here much of the time but I doubt your a huge favorite and getting four-bet would really suck.

3. I don't think taking a shot at this turn is worthwhile. Anyone who has picked up a draw like you will come along, as will many A-high, overcard, and weak paired hands. The pot is simply not big enough to attack. With 1.5 BB in, you'll have to take the pot down over 40% of the time to show an immediate profit, which means you will have to think EACH of your opponents will be folding over 63% of the time. (1)

Given, you also have the outs to add to the value from the bet. Of your 13 total outs, discounting slightly because the potential your spades may be dead or you may get raised on the turn and have to pay more, let's say your outs add up to about 22% equity (the equivalent of 11 pure outs). Then you'd need to get to 18% or so bluff equity to get there. (We're smoothing things over and not considering implied odds and so on and so forth, but the approximation is close). That still means you'd need to have both of your opponents EACH folding over 40% of the time, which is quite a bit (though perhaps realizable). If, though, either of your opponents is identifiable as a calling station, it may be very hard to reach the needed 18% number and a bet becomes a losing proposition.

[private joker]

I think the turn is close between betting and checking. It really depends on your reads, but it's true that both opponents will have to lay down quite often -- then again, if you get called, you have 9 outs to a flush and 4 outs to a straight, so it's a decent semi-bluff in any case. I think with 13 outs and fold equity, it's a close one...

[Moneyline]

Depending upon the other players in the hand, I would frequently take a shot at this on the flop. With no reads I would probably go for it, but if I knew one of my opponents to be good postflop, very aggressive, or very loose I would just check.

Turn: I would semi-bluff here. Yes the board is dry and the pot is small, but you have a ton of outs. Your gutshot draw, flush draw, and probably your 6 and 2 are good too. You might not win the pot outright on the turn very often, but I think the chance that you'll win combined with the chance that you'll river the best hand make this a bet.

River: I would probably raise, because IMO it's unlikely the button will have something most of the time. With any sort of a hand he probably would have bet by now.

I would have 3bet it if I went for the overcall and it was raised behind me.

[sthief09]

bet the flop. bet the turn.

[baronzeus]

I think I bet the turn here, but the river is worrisome, because your opponent raised the pot when a flush card came. I rarely see this except with slowplayed full houses and bigger flushes.

That's unless he/she is a complete idiot, which is another possibility.

[jba]

I would bet that flop for sure. Is that nuts?

the river I think is awesome

[gvibes]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet that flop for sure. Is that nuts?

the river I think is awesome

[/ QUOTE ]

I would bet the flop as well.

[baronzeus]

I probably wouldn't bet the flop. it's a very draw heavy board, and anyone with a pair or a draw is likely to call till the river. If you don't improve (by either hitting your 3 outer or your runner runner flush) you will lose this hand.

[Moneyline]

I don't agree that it's draw heavy. With the exception of clubs and 76 there don't seem to be any legit draws. Overcards might stick around, but I think you're unlikely to be called down by anything less than ace-high... and an ace probably would have raised preflop.