An old live hand

[Nick Royale]

I'm not sure I'm correct, but I'll give you my analysis:

On the flop PFR will bet any ace hand and high PP. The loose/passive button will only raise with a better ace, fd, set or (less likely) 2-pair. 3-betting would not define our hand since button will still probably cap his fd 4-way in position plus we're not sure if PFR holds an ace in which case we'll be drawing to at most 3 outs. Sfer calls the flop and when pfr just call we can put him on a high PP (probably with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]). On the turn we're pretty sure to be ahead of pfr and sometimes we're ahead of button too (when he holds the fd). Sfer bets to prevent a freecard and will be able to fold to a raise drawing to 0-3 outs. When the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls on the river and button bets he's either on the flush, a better ace or set/2-pair.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy call pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Fishlips_Jones]

Ok, I can see the correctness of the preflop call. I ran a few simulations on the odds calculator at cardplayer.
On to the flop:

On this flop, I see he has 4 outs: 1 for the BD straight, 1 for the BD flush and 2 for and 8 (discount the 8 of diamonds). The flop raise gives us 6.5:1 odds on a call. How is his flop call correct?


Fishlips

[krimson]

Thanks, your explanation makes perfect sense.

So if the river was a non-diamond (and non-8), would we c/c or b/f the river?

[krimson]

He may have the best hand. If we're behind a bigger ace, we have outs.

3 outs for top 2-pair. 1.5 outs for a BD flush, 1 out for a BD straight (these numbers are according to SSHE). This gives us 5.5 outs when behind.

I agree the flop call is bit loose, but sfer is factoring in the fact that his hand might be best here.

[BigEndian]

I would have 3-bet on the flop. (edit: to remove folding, overlooked the BD frush).

I think leading the turn is ok if you can fold to a raise, but you can't because the pot is gi-normous. You have relative position on the raisor, you have a reasonable chance to isolate. Perfect CR spot.

The fold on the end is ok if you are 13-1 certain you are beat and you are also 13-1 certain your read is right. I'm not though.

- Jim

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
So if the river was a non-diamond (and non-8), would we c/c or b/f the river?

[/ QUOTE ]
Tough decision. Button won't call with a missed fd, but the presence of mr. coldcall we still might have value in a bet. If the river would have been for example Q non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] button could also have hit a hand he'll pay off a river bet with even though he was on a flushdraw. And still a fold to a raise would be easy. I don't think the button is bluffy enough for making check/calling the best alternative, but maybe he's unbluffy enough for us to still check/fold and count of him not betting a missed fd. I think the presence of the coldcaller would make me bet/fold this river.

[suited aces]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The times we're not ahead we're drawing to 3 outs at most. I don't think it's close, he's loose and will probably call down with all hands that beats us and when he bets the turn he has us beat ~90% (I would probably estimate that it's even more than that).

[/ QUOTE ]

You're ignoring that we picked up a gutshot on the turn to go along with our top pair/weak quicker. That said, I agree that the check-raise is ill-advised.


The way I read the hand, when the original poster picked up the gutshot on the turn, he donked representing a made straight. I think semi-bluffing into three other players in a relatively big pot is unlikely to work. Especially with the flush draw out there.


Still, given that this isn't likely to be checked around and that we probably have 7 outs if we're raised, we might as well bet if we're confident that the passive button won't raise on the expensive streets.


As to the river, having missed our outs, and given that our call doesn't close the action, I guess the fold is fine. Still, given the size of the pot and that the player behind us hasn't shown any aggression, I probably make a crying call.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have 3-bet on the flop. (edit: to remove folding, overlooked the BD frush).

I think leading the turn is ok if you can fold to a raise, but you can't because the pot is gi-normous. You have relative position on the raisor, you have a reasonable chance to isolate. Perfect CR spot.


[/ QUOTE ]
For reasons I've already stated I think these are bad ideas.

[Fishlips_Jones]

Your outs aren't discounted, the 8 of diamonds needs to be discounted. The BD straightdraw is an inside straight draw, so you probably need to discount that somewhat as well.

If he factors in that he might have the best hand, why not reraise ?


Fishlips