AQs - count your outs?

[GoCubsGo]

I like a small raise here. I'd make it $15 which is just about a min-raise. If he is truly just C-betting with nothing, he will probably fold. But if he has something, he will call. The min-raise lets you appear strong without investing much money and disguises your hand a little if you hit your flush.

Semi-bluff here is the proper play in my mind. Against a J (if hes not holding an A or Q) the percentages are 53.4% - 46.6%, so almost even money. Unless he's a super aggresive player i cant see him coming over the top of this with just a J unless he puts you on a flush draw. But i dont know about calling the push. Your going in the underdog and could only be drawing to your flush outs against set/2pair. So judgment call.

[Spekkio]

You think he's betting out with a set of jacks here? I don't. I think he's got one pair, it's just a question of which one pair. The $60 bet is to either A) make him fold his AJ, KJ, QQ-AA and B) if he raises you have proper odds to call.

If the stacks were normal 100xBB stacks, I'd say he should flat out push it all here, but they're too big for that.

Do I think he has JJ? No. I have no idea what he holds, that's the point.

I advocate making a raise that is in line with what you have done previously - a typical raising amount that you've made previously, so that you get information cheaply.

Position is a tremendous asset when playing a hand, when you advocate (essentially) going all in here, you're throwing away your ability to use it to your advantage.

[Skuzzy]

Wow, some good thoughts here. My line - I raised to $20, villain pushed and I took the full time to crumble and fold like the pansy assed set-mining wimp I am. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

He showed KK so my Ace outs were good.

I think I needed to bet harder not just to commit myself to this pot but to show I was committed. My bet let me get away from hand I was afraid to play strongly because I might not like the result.

Thanks all

I think a fold here is reasonable. If we assume that he moves in with all of: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AJ (s or o), or 66, you are 40.4% to win. According to my calculations, calling the rest of his stack, you would need just over 40.2%. Technically, it would be minisculely +EV to call, but folding as you played it is correct.

I do like the line, and I too would probably fold. You asked for and received information. You processed it, and made a valid decision.

I think you played it very well.

[Spekkio]

Min raise for information? That'd donkish. A min raise doesn't tell you anything.

Granted, there isn't really a read here, but merely from statistical analysis, he's going to have one pair the vast majority of the time. The $20 raise isn't going to get anyone to fold, and on the turn you're back to not knowing if your outs are good if you miss, and you're also down to one card to draw. What's worse is if you hit the turn, you won't get paid off.

If you want to raise it to $30-40, that's fine too because it'll give you the proper pot odds to call his all-in, but as I said before I'd put it to $60 so he knows that I'm going all the way with this hand.

And what do you know? OP had 12 outs, just like I thought.

Also, I'll add another thought here -- variance. If you like low variance poker, you should just call the flop here and see what the turn brings and how he bets. Look at it this way...if you raise the $20, what will happen? Hands that have you beat (KJ, AJ, JJ-AA) will call/raise. Hands that you beat (AQ, AK, KQ) will fold. Raising to $20 gives your opponent the opportunity to make the right decision. You need to make a stronger raise if you have any hope of making a pair of jacks or queens fold (which would be the wrong decision for them, but they wouldn't know that). I think at this level, no one's going to lay down KK or AA but if your opponent has those, you still have quite a few outs. Like I said, though, if you want low-variance poker, then you can raise to your $20 and fold like you did, or just call him down while he's making small bets and if you miss the river, you fold.

[Benholio]

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The $60 bet is to either A) make him fold his AJ, KJ, QQ-AA and B) if he raises you have proper odds to call.


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This is a dangerous way to think when making moves like this post-flop. You can make a much smaller bet to get the same fold equity, so you are just using a larger bet the make the all-in call easier to make. By this logic, you can make this play with any 2 cards on any flop as long as you bet enough to price yourself in on the all-in call.

[Godfather80]

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[ QUOTE ]
The $60 bet is to either A) make him fold his AJ, KJ, QQ-AA and B) if he raises you have proper odds to call.


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This is a dangerous way to think when making moves like this post-flop. You can make a much smaller bet to get the same fold equity, so you are just using a larger bet the make the all-in call easier to make. By this logic, you can make this play with any 2 cards on any flop as long as you bet enough to price yourself in on the all-in call.

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Exactly. Very well put rebuttal to a dangerous train of thought.

[Spekkio]

With any two cards, you're not at least 40% to win.