Live Long Enough to Live Forever (x-post)

[ZeeJustin]

I just started reading the Singlurity is Near last night, and haven't even finished the first chapter yet, but I have read Kurzweils Age of Siritual Machines.

To me it's just pretty obvious. It seems like people disagreeing would be in the minorty. All these numbers are guesses off the top of my head, but even if they are way off, my point still stands:
100k BC: Wheel
40k BC: Fire
5k BC: Metal
400 BC: a couple of things that might count as real inventions by the chinese
2005 AD: sweet sassy molasses!

What's your argument against this?

I suppose you could argue that the science of the universe allows for some limitations that we have almost reached, but I think that theory would have been much more valid 100 years ago. If we can perfect only the sciences we are trying today w/ minor success, we should still be able to reach the singularity.

[valenzuela]

Is 5000 years literal?? Or is it an obvious exagerration?? I didnt really get that.

[ZeeJustin]

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Is 5000 years literal?? Or is it an obvious exagerration?? I didnt really get that.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is Abrey De Gray's literal prediction. The authors of the book state that theoretically that is possible, but the real numbers they give are much smaller. I have a feeling Ray Kurzweil doesn't want to give out numbers because The Singularity will result in changing the world beyond recognition.

The Singularity it basically the point in the near future at which humans and computers will be indistinguishable for each other. Right now we have prostethic arms, cochlear implans. Think about what will happen when technology along those lines supplements the brain instead. Some crazy [censored] is gonna happen.

[Monty Cantsin]

A while ago I wrote a review of Spiritual Machines for some website: warning, it's negative.

It seems to me that Kurzweil's prediction of the future is too detailed, too specific, and too confident.

He's like, here's how it's going to go down: boom boom boom. Apparently, it's going to be unimaginable, but he's able to describe with certainty that it will have X, Y, and Z?

It's interesting stuff, but I remain skeptical.

/mc

[BluffTHIS!]

I want to make clear that I have moderately flamed the OP in the past so that people here know my general attitude. But he did ask for views of people who think he's crazy. These type of books are often not much more than mental masturbation for those who like science fiction and wonderful predictions. There's a monster publishing industry in health fad guides and futuristic prediction stuff like this. Same with all those "motivational" books by guys like that Robbins. And even though I am a christian, I also lump all the christian "health and wealth and prosperity" writings in the same category. And as far as that guy being right on some predictions, well Jeanne Dixon's horoscope is going to be right a certain percentage of the time simply because she puts so many vague predictions out there.

There are plenty of legitimate health books to read, and if you want to get a glimpse of the future of science then regularly reading Discover, Scientific American and even Popular Science will provide that. But believing someone who says people in the future will live for thousands of years is just allowing someone to blow smoke up your ass. It is a lot more profitable to try to learn what might come about in scientific inovation in your lifetime and not some far off time when you will have been long buried.

But if you do like this kind of stuff, then you are a prime candidate for Scientology. Pay thousands to learn about Xenu and removing the thetans inhabiting your body. It's all science fiction. Discussing these types of books seriously is akin to having a book club discussion of Harlequin romances.

Daydream on.

[Cooker]

I don't know if you are aware of this, but there have been numerous cases of exponential growth(or faster for instance 1/(t-t0)e^t) that level off abruptly. To extrapolate far when the slope is steep has usually been a blunder. If you fit current data trends, the World GNP will be infinite around 2025 and energy consumption will be also. My point is that some effects emerge rapidly to destroy and level off these apparent exponential growth curves. This can be seen throughout history, but the onset of other affects has often been hard to predict before hand. When Moore's law ends, I predict we will have the same speed computers for 10 years (conservative estimate).