Do I continue after the flop?

steamboatin · #1 11-03-2005, 07:03 PM

#Game No : 2975202297
***** Hand History for Game 2975202297 *****
$0.50/$1 Omaha Hi/Lo - Thursday, November 03, 17:57:14 EDT 2005
Table Table 64829 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Shellseeker ( $53.26 )
Seat 2: buck2ninety8 ( $43.20 )
Seat 3: ZATHRUS2 ( $3.38 )
Seat 5: elliegal ( $18.12 )
Seat 6: xxxmystique ( $10.93 )
Seat 7: desertfrog ( $18.42 )
Seat 10: jdgene ( $18.52 )
Seat 4: steamboatin ( $26.63 )
Seat 9: Givit2mebabe ( $31.38 )
Seat 8: ridnitdog ( $24.59 )
ZATHRUS2 posts small blind [$0.25].
steamboatin posts big blind [$0.50].
ridnitdog posts big blind [$0.50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to steamboatin [ 9s Ad 2c 7s ]
elliegal calls [$0.50].
xxxmystique calls [$0.50].
desertfrog folds.
ridnitdog checks.
Givit2mebabe calls [$0.50].
jdgene folds.
Shellseeker calls [$0.50].
buck2ninety8 calls [$0.50].
ZATHRUS2 folds.
steamboatin checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, Kd, 3s ]
steamboatin checks.
elliegal checks.
xxxmystique checks.
ridnitdog bets [$0.50].
Givit2mebabe folds.
Shellseeker calls [$0.50].
buck2ninety8 calls [$0.50].
steamboatin calls [$0.50].
elliegal calls [$0.50].
xxxmystique calls [$0.50].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4c ]
steamboatin checks.
elliegal checks.
xxxmystique bets [$1].
ridnitdog calls [$1].
Shellseeker calls [$1].
buck2ninety8 calls [$1].
steamboatin calls [$1].
elliegal folds.
** Dealing River ** [ Kc ]
steamboatin checks.
xxxmystique bets [$1].
ridnitdog folds.
Shellseeker calls [$1].
buck2ninety8 folds.
steamboatin folds.
xxxmystique shows [ 9h, 4s, Jh, 4h ] a full house, Fours full of kings.
Shellseeker shows [ Ks, Ac, 2s, 8d ] three of a kind, kings.
xxxmystique wins $13 from the main pot with a full house, Fours full of kings.
There was no qualifying low hand.

Here is a situation that I don't know what to do. I think I played it wron and should have folded on the flop. What are the odds of runner runner low cards?

muse21 · #2 11-03-2005, 07:32 PM

In my opinion this is day 1, lesson 1. Can't chase this low. In fact, if there had been two low cards on this flop you wouldn't be in very good shape with absolutly no hi prospects and no counterfiet protection.

Easy, easy fold.

Cooker · #3 11-03-2005, 07:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In my opinion this is day 1, lesson 1. Can't chase this low. In fact, if there had been two low cards on this flop you wouldn't be in very good shape with absolutly no hi prospects and no counterfiet protection.

Easy, easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that the flop call makes no sense. I am not chasing runner runner for half the pot. However, with 6 players coming in it would be an easy call with 2 low cards on the flop.

muse21 · #4 11-03-2005, 08:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In my opinion this is day 1, lesson 1. Can't chase this low. In fact, if there had been two low cards on this flop you wouldn't be in very good shape with absolutly no hi prospects and no counterfiet protection.

Easy, easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that the flop call makes no sense. I am not chasing runner runner for half the pot. However, with 6 players coming in it would be an easy call with 2 low cards on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, in limit I would call as well. But I wanted to show just how bad a spot this is. You aren't getting rich calling on the board with two low cards. It's about break even. You'll get 1/6 nearly as many times as you get 1/2.

#5 11-03-2005, 09:08 PM

Nah, I don't like the flop call.

As for the odds of getting two running low cards, on the flop four are already gone (three in your hand, one on the board). 24 are left in the deck. So the odds of getting two babies (disregarding the chance of you getting counterfeited) are (24/45)*(23/44) = approx. 28%.

Someone yell at me if I did the math wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Buzz · #6 11-03-2005, 09:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What are the odds of runner runner low cards?]/quote]

Steamboatin' -
• Low will be enabled 267/990.
• Your hand will qualify for low 240/990.
• Your ace-deuce will make the nut low 144/990.
_
That makes the answer to your question
2.7 to 1 against.
_
However, the odds of you making the nut low (which, IMHO, is what you should be interested in here) are about 5.9 to 1 against.
_
I suggest you fold to a bet after the flop. If it gets checked around and then there's a bet after a favorable turn, you'll have to make another decision. In that case the odds against you making the nut low will have dropped to roughly even.
_
But remember it's only for half the pot. You might do better folding (depending) even after no bet on the second round and a favorable card on the turn.
_
Just my opinion.
_
Buzz

gergery · #7 11-03-2005, 09:54 PM

runner-runner low is worth 2-3 outs in my opinion, but others can arrive at slightly different numbers depending on what assumptions you want to make about how often you'll get quartered and how often it will get raised on flop or turn.

You were getting ~10:1 so you needed 4 outs and you don't have them.

-g

Buzz · #8 11-04-2005, 12:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
runner-runner low is worth 2-3 outs in my opinion

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg - Pretty close, I think. Depends a bit on exactly what cards are involved, in my humble opinion.

[ QUOTE ]
You were getting ~10:1 so you needed 4 outs and you don't have them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the approach, but I'm not sure I follow exactly. (What would he need if he was getting ~8:1, or something else?)

Buzz

Jim Morgan · #9 11-04-2005, 12:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]

You aren't getting rich calling on the board with two low cards. It's about break even. You'll get 1/6 nearly as many times as you get 1/2.

[/ QUOTE ]

What?!?

This is just plain wrong. Assuming your A2 makes the nut low, and assuming nobody folds another A2, it will be the
only one more often than not. I saw a figure of 36% for copy A2 on a website one of the posters here runs, and I have no reason to doubt his math.

As for winding up with 1/6th.... that is a freak result. I see that no more than twice a night in live play (where those morons NEVER dump low if they have an out for the nut low. I love seeing some dork draw at 23 for runner-rnnner low, get there with a miracle Ace and low and STILL get carved up, but I digress).
Besides, the cost of getting only 1/6th of the pot vs. getting only 1/4th is very small, assuming 4 way action as is usual when this happens. Playing 3-6, each bet going in will lose $2 if you are in a three way low split. If you are getting quartered (and assuming only 3 way action) your 6$ bet will lose $1.50. So.... getting chopped up into 3 pieces instead of 2 only costs you fifty cents!

In PL things change, but even in that game worrying about 1/4th vs 1/6th is "monsters under the bed"

Jim

gergery · #10 11-04-2005, 12:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
runner-runner low is worth 2-3 outs in my opinion

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg - Pretty close, I think. Depends a bit on exactly what cards are involved, in my humble opinion.

[ QUOTE ]
You were getting ~10:1 so you needed 4 outs and you don't have them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the approach, but I'm not sure I follow exactly. (What would he need if he was getting ~8:1, or something else?)

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

With 44 unseen cards, if he was getting 8:1 then he'd need ~5.5 outs, recognizing that with 2 cards to come it is fuzzier math.

I was merely trying to quantify how close the decision was.

-g