HH - excessive tightness versus bubble push?

[sofere]

I didn't look at anyone elses responses before I posted this, curious what other people's takes are.

IMHO, easy call. You having both the other guys covered is key.

Lets go through button's perspective first. If he folds, you are definitely gonna go in with any 2 getting 2.5:1 and he'll have a 50/50 shot of getting in the money. So he "should" have a better than average hand, but that doesn't mean premium. I'd guess there's a 55-60% chance that he busts BB. You're ITM with 2xbb, or still on the bubble with shorty blinded all-in in 2 hands. So if you fold, I'd say you're about 80% to be ITM with very little chance of moving up in places.

However, you have both players covered. If you call you're probably ahead (I'd guess around 55-60% against his range). If BB folds and you win, you're a lock for 2nd with a chance for first. If BB folds and you lose, BB is all-in next hand and has a 50-50 shot of busting before the blinds hit you. So if you call and BB folds, you have as much chance of getting ITM as if you folded, but you have a far greater chance of moving up places.

If both you and BB calls, BB has to beat both of you to finish ITM. Worst case scenario, BB wins main pot, Button wins side pot. Button now has 1 BB left (The main pot is 4.5BB side pot is 1 BB) and is blinded all-in next BB and you have a 50-50 shot of finishing ITM.

So by calling, you have at least the same chance of finishing ITM, but a much greater chance of moving up. Easy Call.

[johnnybeef]

i think i call here. buttons range is incredibly huge, as are the blinds. with the blinds this big, you are still in contention for first, and this is as good a chance as any to take that first step.

*note* this is a call that i make if and only if the bb is exactly all in on the next hand.

[Big Limpin']

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buttons range is incredibly huge,


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JB - can you give a reason for this stance?

I felt at the time, and still feel, that buttons range is incredably narrow . I could be convinced otherwise, i suppose, but you'll have to give your reasoning for this.

Thx - BL'

Hey all, been lurking here for a while, but finally got up the nerve to start posting : )

I fold here. I agree that at this point the starting hand range for the three shorties is incredibly narrow -- most likely it is not a blind steal because, like you said, the big blind will be all in on the next hand.

Maybe I am too passive but I would rather wait until I am in the money and then start pushing like crazy. Doesn't seem worth a coin flip at this point.

But I would probably call if I had middle pocket pairs.