Derrek Lee Prop Bets at Pinny

[GrekeHaus]

I noticed today that Pinnacle is running a series of prop bets regarding Derrek Lee and his quest for the triple crown. Among these are whether or not he'll win various categories and what his final totals would be.

The over/under for total home runs was set at 46.5. Currently he's at 32 after the Cubs first 105 games. If he keeps this pace up, he should hit 17.3 HRS on average for the rest of the season. In order to make the over, he only needs to hit 15 HRs. I did a poisson calcuation and figured out that should happen about 75% of the time!?! I also did the same with RBIs and got a similar result.

Of course, this analysis is based on him keeping up his current pace, which may be unreasonable given that he's never even hit more than 32 HRs before in his career. If I reduce his expected number of HRs for the rest of the season to 15, then he'll only hit the over about 53.5% of the time.

Does anybody have any thoughts on this? What is a reasonable number of HRs to expected number of HRs for him to hit for the rest of the season? Should I even bother with this, or are Pinny's lines just too good?

--GH [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Losing all]

I wouldn't touch o46.5. As you say he's already at a career high, can't expect him to keep this pace up. I'm sweating o47.5, and that includes every hitter in baseball. I think this will come down to the wire with Dunn being my best chance.