Rule of Thumb, when will the tourney end...

[Scotty O]

One night just fooling around with some numbers and looking at completed tourneys, I decided to find out if the 10% rule was true...
check this link out
http://www.geocities.com/thepokerfanatic/chart.html

This charts shows the % of the BB to total chips outstanding vs. the buy in amount of the tourney. All of the Data came from UB. It shows that the time when a tourney ends is aroung 2.5%, not the 10% rule of thumb you find on websites.

Just some stats:
n = 72
Ave = 2.6%
SD = 1.8%

Have fun with the info. If you want the file, PM me

[AZnuts]

I'd be interested in the data, but your link just shows a placeholder, no actual chart.

[Hedge Henderson]

I don't see anything, either.

I imagine the numbers are going to vary somewhat depending on number of players, their skill/agressiveness, and how fast the blinds increase.

In my experience with home games (around 10-16 players), the average is closer to 5-8% in HE, and a little higher than that in O8.

I use the 10% rule to set an upper time limit for the tourneys I host. Most finish one round earlier, and only one has ever finished later.

[Lottery Larry]

I would imagine online is a lot faster/aggressive than home games. I've NEVER had a tourney end at 2% of the total chips or starting stack.

The 10% rule (starting stack for smaller tourneys, total chips for larger ones) as upper limit has been pretty consistant for me. The 5-8% of chips sounds about right typically.

[mce86]

What do you mean by 10% rule? That the blinds should start as 10% of your stack?

[Lottery Larry]

When the blinds at the later levels get to be around 10% of either the starting stack (1-2 tables) or the total chips in play (3+ tables), that's the latest your tournament should end up running.
The reason- When the blinds are getting to be 5-10% of the chips out there, someone is going to be forced to make a move because of their stack size.

Did that clear it up?

[Scotty O]

Sorry about that here is the excel file link

http://www.geocities.com/thepokerfanatic/file.xls

[Scotty O]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see anything, either.

I imagine the numbers are going to vary somewhat depending on number of players, their skill/agressiveness, and how fast the blinds increase.

In my experience with home games (around 10-16 players), the average is closer to 5-8% in HE, and a little higher than that in O8.

I use the 10% rule to set an upper time limit for the tourneys I host. Most finish one round earlier, and only one has ever finished later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it does vary. Typically a small buy in generates High player count and a Higher % (BB/sum of all chips [SoAC]) than a high Buyin ($100 with 100 player) typically have a <1% of the BB/SoAC. Another thing to note is that Turbo tourneys are included in the numbers and my also shed light on the Rule of THumb.

Home game experience with 19 to 40 players have been about 5% BB/SoAC, 10 or less have been more like 2% If anyone has more Data to add, put it in a repost.

Scotty O

[TenPercenter]

I;'ve found that, in general, my tourneys end when the Bb reachs about the size of the original buy-in. THis has proven true with a 10 man tourney or a 30 man. Has this just been conincidence for me?

Ten

[Big Country]

[ QUOTE ]
I;'ve found that, in general, my tourneys end when the Bb reachs about the size of the original buy-in. THis has proven true with a 10 man tourney or a 30 man. Has this just been conincidence for me?

Ten

[/ QUOTE ]

I have heard that this is the general rule of thumb and it seems to hold true for many of the tourneys I have been ionvolved in.