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  #1  
Old 11-07-2004, 08:56 PM
dlode dlode is offline
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Default 50/50 situations in tournaments. Advice?


I want some feedback on 50/50 situations in tournament poker.I was playing in a live $500 tournament today with about 62 runners, which I had won entry to. Anyway, with about 27 people left,2 and a half hrs in, and with the BB at 700 and SB at 350 and with the average chip count at 14000 chips I find myself under the gun with AK offsuit.I have around 12500 chips. I raise 4000 immediately (yeah, I know,probably too much of a raise) and the guy next to me goes all in. He has the same amount of chips as me,more or less. Everyone folds and it comes round and I call. He turns up 9-9. I catch nothing and bust out of tourney. In the 2 and a half hrs of play I had gone with these 50/50 situations three times. Once with my 9-9 against AK, which I won (ironically) and once with 10 10 against AJ (the other guy with AJ was short stacked so I called his all in raise.
This is the question. Is it bad play to force these situations? I know you have to come through a few of these in most tournies to build a stack, but some people on my table with decent chip counts never got themselves into these situations once. Should I have folded with my AK when the guy went all in even tho I put him on a low pair, which he had? What is the best strategy in these situations in tournies
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  #2  
Old 11-07-2004, 09:40 PM
Cpt Spaulding Cpt Spaulding is offline
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Default Re: 50/50 situations in tournaments. Advice?

Hard to say what a good play would be...You should play against the player not the cards...If you pay attention to others bet patterns during the game the info you obtain helps in this kind of situation...Is the guy Tight aggressive? a loose player? passive player?? It is impossible to tell you what the right play would be without knowing something about the other player...
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  #3  
Old 11-07-2004, 10:42 PM
grandgnu grandgnu is offline
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Default Re: 50/50 situations in tournaments. Advice?

Problem here is that it wasn't a 50/50 situation, he had you beat pre-flop. You could certainly win, there are odds that allow that.

With blinds at 350/700 your raise should be to around 2100. If you're short-stacked you stick around with this hand and pray. If you're medium-stacked you can consider a laydown. If the other player has an equal or larger stack than you, you should figure he has either A/K also or a pocket pair, so it's likely you'll either split the pot or lose the pot.

If the player is short-stacked and you can take a stab at them without risking too much of your stack, it's worth a shot.

I have my A/K and A/Q in a tourney both hold up in one of those coin flips, and other times they don't. You can't win em all unfortunately.
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  #4  
Old 11-08-2004, 02:15 AM
Reef Reef is offline
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Default Re: 50/50 situations in tournaments. Advice?

[ QUOTE ]
If you're short-stacked you stick around with this hand (AK) and pray. If you're medium-stacked you can consider a laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, Laying down AK in tihs situation is the worst play unless you're certain he has A's or K's. This guy went over the top with 9's, which says a lot. If you got any read on him beforehand (hopefully), you could probably deduce that he has, AT BEST, a 13 to 10 on you. I wouldn't be surprised if he turned over AQ either.
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  #5  
Old 11-08-2004, 08:00 AM
grandgnu grandgnu is offline
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Default Re: 50/50 situations in tournaments. Advice?

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, Laying down AK in tihs situation is the worst play unless you're certain he has A's or K's. This guy went over the top with 9's, which says a lot. If you got any read on him beforehand (hopefully), you could probably deduce that he has, AT BEST, a 13 to 10 on you. I wouldn't be surprised if he turned over AQ either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, it all depends upon what you've seen this particular player do before, and your own perception of what other people view your table image as.

He overbet the pot, more than 5x the BB, so the right call considering how much money invested may have been to call. But I still think a laydown should be considered. Especially if you've only raised 3x the BB. Yes, AK is a good hand. But the re-raise that he faced suggests at least A/K or a pocket pair, so I still think he's at best looking at a chop and at worst a "virtual coin flip" that has odds in his opponents favor.
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  #6  
Old 11-08-2004, 10:21 AM
dlode dlode is offline
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Default Re: 50/50 situations in tournaments. Advice?

Thanks. I did have a read on him and put him on a medium sized pair. I was right. I still called as I had overbet in the first place. So he was a slight favorite. But I guess it was played wrong as it cost me my tournament when, really, I was doing ok and slowly progressing.I guess what I was trying to ask is, when is it right to force these 50 50 situations (I know that it's ok when you are trying to bust someone who is short stacked) and how many times should we expect to have to go through or provoke coin flip situation in a MT tourney that will go on for a minimum of 5 hrs until final table?
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  #7  
Old 11-08-2004, 10:37 AM
grandgnu grandgnu is offline
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Default Re: 50/50 situations in tournaments. Advice?

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks. I did have a read on him and put him on a medium sized pair. I was right. I still called as I had overbet in the first place. So he was a slight favorite. But I guess it was played wrong as it cost me my tournament when, really, I was doing ok and slowly progressing.I guess what I was trying to ask is, when is it right to force these 50 50 situations (I know that it's ok when you are trying to bust someone who is short stacked) and how many times should we expect to have to go through or provoke coin flip situation in a MT tourney that will go on for a minimum of 5 hrs until final table?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say it's the right play if YOU are short-stacked and need to make a stand, or if the other player is short-stacked and you have the opportunity to bust him without hurting yourself. Another possibility is if you're facing a re-raise from a bully large stack who's just trying to get people out of pots, then you can push right back at him, your hand is strong enough to play against what might be a bluff.

As far as how many times you'll have to play these coin flip hands in a tournament? That's going to depend on how many players there are.

I played quite successfully three tournaments online in one week with 721 players (7-stud hi/lo finished 18th) and 892 players (omaha hi/lo finished 37th) and NL Hold Em (1989 players finished 31st). Unfortunately all were cheapie tourneys with $1 or $3 buy-ins, so not a lot of money for my effort.

In the NL tournament with that many players, my A/K and A/Q won the coin flips for me. And my J/J held up twice as well from what I recall. I think throughout that tourney I survived/played somewhere around 5-10 of those coin flips, it's been awhile. But you're also talking 2000 players and lots of maniacs cause the buy-in is only 3 bucks and they could care less.

Had some idiot raise with K/3 of spades after we were in the money, I held Q/Q and moved all-in (had 72K in chips, he had about 50K, I was in 10th chip position out of 70 players). He didn't raise too much and could have (and should have) folded his K/3 suited given that I had been showing down A/K, A/Q and pocket pairs all night and he still had 40-50K and plenty of opportunity (first place was getting 1300 bucks) but he called me.

And OF COURSE not one but TWO Kings came up on the board and he knocked my 72K stack down to 17K. I outlasted him, including having my K/Q best his A/A when I caught two kings on the board (payback rules!). But his poor play cost me the chips I needed to make a significant bid for that 1300 bucks. I won $21 instead. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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  #8  
Old 11-08-2004, 11:13 AM
Ray Zee Ray Zee is offline
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Default Re: 50/50 situations in tournaments. Advice?

the chances of your winning may have been around 50/50. but you were getting around 2 to 1 pot odds for calling. sometimes you get trapped playing a pot and have to hope for the best.
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  #9  
Old 11-08-2004, 12:42 PM
BasketballNYC BasketballNYC is offline
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Default Re: 50/50 situations in tournaments. Advice?

The original oversized raise was the problem. You put a third of your chips in and built a pot that you were then commited to. You need to win coinflips in a tournament but they are to be avoided for all your chips.

The thinking here is twofold. First, you are getting 2-1 pot odds for your call. You are most likely a coinflip but might have him dominated. Your subjective estimate on whether he has A-K, A-Q or A-J makes a big difference. Either way, the proper cash game play is a certain call.

The second issue is what going broke in a tourney means. You only need to lose a coinflip for all of your chips once to be done. This has to effect your decisions. If you know that you are a coin flip, even if the pot is laying you better odds, I can't say that you should always make the call.

If I make a bet with you that if you flip a coin 5 times and lose the moment you hit tails but win if it is heads every time, then you would be foolish to even accept 2-1 money. Over the course of a tournament, if you are willing to get broke on small edges, eventually you will.

(Note: In this case, the pot edge was rather large. This one is a tough spot)

Matt F.
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  #10  
Old 11-08-2004, 12:55 PM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Default Re: 50/50 situations in tournaments. Advice?

[ QUOTE ]
If I make a bet with you that if you flip a coin 5 times and lose the moment you hit tails but win if it is heads every time, then you would be foolish to even accept 2-1 money.

[/ QUOTE ]
The first prize in a tournament is much more than 3 times the entry fee. The idea that you should avoid coinflips is grossly overemphasized. No one expects to win the tournament most of the time. Early in a tournament, your share of the prize pool is roughly proportionate to the number of chips you have. This is an easy call.
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