Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Other Poker > Omaha/8
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-21-2005, 04:44 PM
kurto kurto is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Connecticutt
Posts: 41
Default Is there a general answer?....

A situation I'm not sure about that comes up frequently.

When you flop 2 or 3 pair, and therefore have no real redraws except for fullhouses... if there's anyone else contesting the pot, is this complete junk? Can someone give examples when its desireable and when it isn't?

Ex:
You have A34K and the Flop comes AK5.... worthless?
You have A2QK and the flop comes A2Q.... worthless?
You have 9JQK and the flop comes 29K.... worthless?

I play at the $25 tables where peope tend to bet on as weak as top pair, any 2 pair, etc. Is this smart or are these hands just trouble waiting to happen?

I'll go hypothetical. Or... Three people are contesting a pot...

On the turn, the board is 4 6 10h Jh

let's say on the turn you know you are certain you have the current best high hand with top 2pair (6-10-J-A) (you were in the BB) and no low draw... someone else you are sure has an overpair (Aces) with the flush draw the third player you know has the low draw... DO YOU BET? C/C? C/F?

Sorry if this is too basic. I find 2 or 3 pair with no other made draws evident the most confusing hand on any street.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 10-21-2005, 05:28 PM
DyessMan89 DyessMan89 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 308
Default Re: Is there a general answer?....

Well it depends on the game, but as a general guidline ... I rarley continue on with anything but top two pair. I think others will agree that if you begin to chase lesser two pairs, you are going to be bleeding chips away.

I dont think any of the 3 examples you gave are "worthless", but there are definitley on the fence.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-21-2005, 05:33 PM
kurto kurto is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Connecticutt
Posts: 41
Default Re: Is there a general answer?....

I guess my question is... if you continue, do you bet these if you act first? If someone bets before you, do you call or raise? (I know that reads help, but as a general rule... I'm just not sure in this game what value to place on top 2 pair.)

btw-- who is the woman in your avatar?
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 10-21-2005, 10:12 PM
IHateKeithSmart IHateKeithSmart is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: check folding the nuts
Posts: 182
Default Re: Is there a general answer?....

I think the 1st and 3rd hands are most valuable, and I am probably betting/raising either of these. With the first you still have a good chance of scooping. But you are playing PL, right? I am thinking limit, if it's of any use.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 10-23-2005, 08:23 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 598
Default Re: Is there a general answer?....

[ QUOTE ]
A situation I'm not sure about that comes up frequently.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kurto - You’re only going to flop three pairs roughly once every one hundred sixty flops when you see the flop with four unpaired cards in your hand. (P = 108/17296)

However, you’ll flop two pair on the flop when you play four unpaired cards roughly once every nine times (P = 1944/17296). Let's concentrate on this one.

Usually, you’ll also have a shot at something else ( low, straight, flush, etc.) - but it can happen that your realistic hopes depend almost entirely on making a full house or quads. And in that case with flopped two pairs, you have four outs and two chances at catching an out (on the turn and then again on the river).

If you see both of the next two cards (the turn and river), the odds against making a full house or quads are 840 to 150 against. (or ~5.6 to 1 against). I should caution you that it's most useful in terms of figuring whether you have favorable odds to call or not to consider the odds of catching on the next two cards if you're short stacked and going "all-in" on the second betting round. If you have more than enough chips in your stack, I think you do better considering your odds after the flop and then again after the turn, rather than lumping them together as I'm doing here.

Then when you do make a full house with your flopped two pairs, it’s not guaranteed to win. And you have to take that into account.

When the final board is
9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],
• (1) quad tens are possible, as are
• (2) queens full of tens,
• (3) jacks full of tens,
• (4) tens full of queens,
• (5) tens full of jacks,
• (6) tens full of nines, and
• (7) nines full of tens.
That’s quads and six different possible full houses - and I’ve listed them in order of favorability, with the best listed first.

When you, yourself, hold four different ranks of cards including a ten, quad tens are not possible and there are only the six different full houses possible. Thus for the case where you have four unpaired cards and flop two pairs, if you do make a full house, it will either be (4) tens full of queens, (5) tens full of jacks, or (6) tens full of nines.

Obviously you’d rather hold a better full house than an opponent. It’s a bummer to lose with a full house! If you have on the above cited board, for example, (5) tens full of jacks, a pretty good hand, you can still be beaten by (2) queens full of tens, (3) jacks full of tens, or (4) tens full of queens.

But how often do you figure to be beaten by one of these better full houses when you, yourself, hold (5) tens full of jacks? Well... it’s hard to say for sure because it depends on how loosely your opponents are playing, before the flop and immediately after the flop. And it depends on exactly which of the board cards appeared on the flop.

If the flop for the above cited final board was:
9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], then maybe somebody who started with a pair of queens or a queen and a ten will have folded either before or after the flop.

But if the flop for the above cited final board was:
T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], then if the person with the pair of queens did not fold before the flop, there’s hardly any way he/she will fold after that flop. And whether or not an opponent who was dealt a hand with a queen and a ten will have folded before the flop or will fold top and bottom pair after the flop depends on the individual player.

So you should immediately see one difference between flopping top two pair and bottom two pair. When you flop bottom two pair, if you do catch one of your outs on the turn or river, you’re more likely to run into an opponent who has a better full house than you.

Even if you flop top two pair and the board later pairs, you still can possibly lose to a better full house (depending) - but you’re clearly more likely to lose to a better full house if you flop bottom two pairs.

Of course, you obviously can’t lose to a higher full house if you flop aces and kings as your two pair and if the board later pairs with aces. But if you flop treys and deuces as your two flopped pair, you’re very vulnerable even if you do make a full house. Think of aces + kings as black and treys + deuces as white. There are all those shades of grey in between black and white - and they’re all different from each other. Some flopped two pairs are better than others. Even when the flopped two pairs are specifically jacks and tens, it’s a different situation if there is also a queen or higher on the flop rather than a nine or lower.

In a full, loose game when you hold 23TJ in the unraised big blind and the flop is TJQ, and the final board is 9TTJQ, your full house will probably win about 60%, tie another 7% and be beaten something like 33%.

So let’s go back to where you’re going all in on the second betting round and the odds against making your full house/ quads were 5.6 to 1 against. Your odds against ending up with a winning full house were not 5.6 to 1 against.

There are different cases, so without knowing exact specifics it’s hard to be precise, but roughly, (150/990)*(2/3) = ~10%. Your odds against ending up with a winning full house/quads in this case are about 9 to 1 (against), rather than 5.6 to 1.

Sobering, eh? Nine to one aren’t very good odds, unless the amount of money in the pot at the showdown will be nine times greater than it will cost you to see the next two cards. That's almost impossible.

Maybe you won’t have to make a full house or quads. Maybe no opponent will have your two pair beat at the showdown. But when the flop has three cards in sequence or three cards of the same suit, somebody will probably have flopped a straight or flush. And even when that doesn’t happen, you might be up against a set, or somebody might make trips to beat your two pair. or somebody might have a higher two pair.

At any rate, how good flopped two pair are depends on a number of factors.

[ QUOTE ]
When you flop 2 or 3 pair, and therefore have no real redraws except for fullhouses... if there's anyone else contesting the pot, is this complete junk? Can someone give examples when its desireable and when it isn't?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what you can get away with playing after the flop depends very much on your opponents and how they’re playing. That written, here are two examples, one of a hand that might be playable and the other of a hand that might not be playable in a typical limit game (I know you're a pot-limit player but I'm a limit player and I feel more confident discussing how to play in a limit game). At any rate, here are the two examples:

• Generally playable if played fast:
hand: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]; flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img];

• Generally unplayable:
hand: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]; flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img];

[ QUOTE ]
You have A34K and the Flop comes AK5.... worthless?
You have A2QK and the flop comes A2Q.... worthless?
You have 9JQK and the flop comes 29K.... worthless?

[/ QUOTE ]

None of them are necessarily “worthless.” However, they all are risky.

[ QUOTE ]
I play at the $25 tables where peope tend to bet on as weak as top pair, any 2 pair, etc. Is this smart or are these hands just trouble waiting to happen?

[/ QUOTE ]

“trouble waiting to happen”

[ QUOTE ]
Three people are contesting a pot...

On the turn, the board is 4 6 10h Jh

let's say on the turn you know you are certain you have the current best high hand with top 2pair (6-10-J-A) (you were in the BB) and no low draw... someone else you are sure has an overpair (Aces) with the flush draw the third player you know has the low draw... DO YOU BET? C/C? C/F?

[/ QUOTE ]

In this particular case, you should bet. You’ll lose more often than you’ll win, but you’ll scoop often enough to more than off-set your losses, and the half pots you’ll win are icing on the cake. Bet! Absolutely!

[ QUOTE ]
Is there a general answer?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. (Not as to what to do with flopped two pair). There are some generalities, some of which might be clear to you from reading the above.

(There are never any guarantees about my numbers, but I do try to get the math stuff right).

Buzz
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:27 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.