Thoughts on ICM

[trojanrabbit]

Just trying to get an order of magnitude view on this.

If someone (button or SB) steals the blinds you gain +0.2% or +0.3%
If there's an all-in confrontation, you gain +2.3% to +4.4% depending on who it is.

What would you estimate is the chance of an all-in confrontation (either pre or post flop)? If it's only 8% of the time, then you are already at the 0.5% "min edge." I would suspect the chance would be much closer to 30% which would give you a +1.2% bonus. That's quite significant!

Don't want to slam ICM, I'm just brainstorming here... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Tysen

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Just trying to get an order of magnitude view on this.

If someone (button or SB) steals the blinds you gain +0.2% or +0.3%
If there's an all-in confrontation, you gain +2.3% to +4.4% depending on who it is.

What would you estimate is the chance of an all-in confrontation (either pre or post flop)? If it's only 8% of the time, then you are already at the 0.5% "min edge." I would suspect the chance would be much closer to 30%

[/ QUOTE ]

For SB and BB behind you, I would say something nominal would be pushing top 30%, calling top 15%, which is less than 5% showdown. 30% seems like a crazy number to me. That would mean nearly even-stacked bubbles would last about 3 hands. Is that what you see? My even-stacked bubbles usually last a lot more than 3 hands.

BTW, there is no "the" min edge. 0.5% is just a default.

For UTG, it's higher, but then you also have to consider the fact that you're taking the blinds next hand, which further erodes your equity if you fold, which tends to offset any action effect.

eastbay