Thoughts on statistics

[Scuba Chuck]

I'm noticing some interesting consistencies in my results over the past 2 months, and first 10 days of this month. Pretty consistently I'm in the top 50% for my top 4 finishes.

February Results:
45% ITM, and 9% 4th place finishes (308 games)

March Results:
39% ITM, and 12% 4th place finishes (475 games)

April (Month to date) Results:
35% ITM, and 15% 4th place finishes (355 games)

So, here's my question. Do most of you place in the top 4 in 50% of your games? Any multi-tablers out there hitting high 50s or 60s?

[spentrent]

I'm in the top 4 almost exactly 50% since I've started playing profitably. It seems like 5% of those are sometimes 4, sometimes 1, and that seems to separate the good weeks from the not so good weeks.

Just guessing about the nature of that 5%. (~200 games per week if that means anything.)

EDIT: 4-tabling. (200 a week otherwise would be insane [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

[johnny005]

after 550 20+2's I'm 49.5% for top 4 finishes, and thats after a bad streak of 1%ROI after 230 games..

[Freudian]

40% ITM
18% 4th

I have great expertise in going out in a blaze of glory in 4th.

[johnny005]

I'm not sure what is better to haev a higher % of 5th or 4th? Anyone who has played a high # of these what % are they getting for 4ths?

[Freudian]

I have 17% 5th places also. So top five 75%. Which probably means I am a bit too conservative levels 1-3.

Anyway, my sample is only ~600 SnG's (new computer, new db). So I suspect the numbers are far from set in stone.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what is better to haev a higher % of 5th or 4th? Anyone who has played a high # of these what % are they getting for 4ths?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any amount is too many. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[johnny005]

my 5ths are 20% over 550 sng's, only 4ths are 12.5%

[Scuba Chuck]

I am beginning to reconsider/retool my game, and to think about the following positive characteristics of a winning player.

1) weak/tight pre-4 handed (unless short-stacked of course)
2) survival equity
3) Avoiding the race

As I think of these three issues, I realize that they are all inter-related or one in the same. Freudian, those numbers are nice. That means nearly 60% of the time, you have an opportunity to make it ITM. Impressive. This will be part of my new challenge. IMO, that can only be achieved by successful weak/tight play, which I think is very proper in tournament games until 4 handed.

For example. I have a few ‘rules’ that I follow. Specifically, I call when I have JJ+, AK. Yesterday, while in the chip lead (t4000), I was dealt AKs when it was 6 handed (blinds 100/200). 2nd stack (t2500), who is on my right pushes allin. I’m multi-tabling. My rule is to call. Reflecting back, survival equity should have pushed me to fold here. There is no need to tangle with this guy at this stage of the game. I don’t have a made hand. As I reflect back to that hand, the correct thought process should have started with this question. “what are the reasons to fold here.” Instead, what went through my mind was, if I win this hand, I’ll dominate the table, and if I lose, I’ll still have t1500 (which put me into 2nd stack position, in a tight race, and eventually out in 4th place).

It's interesting to note the $EV transfer on that call.
t4000 = 32.2% of the equity prize pool
t1500 = 18.2% of the equity prize pool
t6800 = 42.4% of the equity prize pool

I gain 10% of the equity prize pool by winning that hand, but lose 14% if I don’t. Besides the two in the showdown here, everyone else gains by this entanglement. And they gain a lot.

Just some Scuba thoughts I wanted to share.

[EdgePort]

I have been taken this into account a lot more lately, and passing up on a few cases where I would have normally called when fighting with the 2nd stack. An AK example exactly like yours was what made me start thinknig about this. In my case, it was the large stack calling my 2nd stack push and losing that made me realize, it wasnt' really worth the call for him.