Hand from .25/.50

#1 11-28-2005, 04:29 PM

PokerRoom 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, calls, 4 folds, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: (3.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, calls.

Turn: (3.70 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, folds.

River: (6.70 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 8.70 BB

Aggression works alot at these 25/50 tables, but I couldnt push everyone out of this pot. I'll post the somewhat-interesting results later. Any thoughts?

jaxUp · #2 11-28-2005, 04:38 PM

4 way you need to check/call this turn and c/f the river.

#3 11-28-2005, 05:25 PM

Hero shows 6dTd (one pair, tens).
UTG has 2c Ad (one pair, twos).

Outcome: Hero wins 8.70 BB.

Just lucky that this was the one time it was right?

jaxUp · #4 11-28-2005, 05:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Just lucky that this was the one time it was right?

[/ QUOTE ]

This time it was still not right. It was lucky, but not right. Let's say you win this pot about 13/46 times. so, 13/46 times you win an average of 7BB, and 33/46 times you lose 2BB.

13/46*7 + 33/46*(-2) = 1.98 - 1.43 = .55BB

So taking this line you win an average of .55 BB

If you c/c turn and c/f river UI, you lose say .9BB 33/46 times, and win an average of 6.75BB 13/46 times

13/46*6.75 + 33/46*(-0.9) = 1.91 - .65 = 1.26BB

so the difference in EV is about -.7 BB by taking the line you took.

Basically, by winning this pot, you just lost .7BB, as strange as that seems.

McHonts · #5 11-28-2005, 05:40 PM

I would have check/raised flop and bet out on turn. In the small blind, you are not pushing out any better hands with a bet.

#6 11-28-2005, 05:47 PM

Interesting analysis......How did you arrive at the winning hand 13 out of 46 times though? If you figure you are only behind to Jacks, then wouldn't it be: 9 times when you hit your flush, 3 times when you hit your 6 for 2 pair, and then 1 times when you hit another T for trips?----That would be 13 by my count as well---but then wouldn't you also need to add in a % chance you have that you don't need to improve?

jaxUp · #7 11-28-2005, 05:48 PM

I don't particularly care about driving out players on this flop bet. We have good enough equity that we're better than even if 2 players call. If ony one player calls then we pick up some fold equity as well. Where the bet becomes bad is on the turn where our equity drops significantly when we miss. Basically, I just want to make sure one bet goes in on this flop, and with no PFR, there's no guarantee that somebody else will bet.

jaxUp · #8 11-28-2005, 05:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Interesting analysis......How did you arrive at the winning hand 13 out of 46 times though? If you figure you are only behind to Jacks, then wouldn't it be: 9 times when you hit your flush, 3 times when you hit your 6 for 2 pair, and then 1 times when you hit another T for trips?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the chance that we don't need to improve is almost zero against 3 opponents, and is mitigated by the times when somebody else has a better flush draw or was slowplaying us on the flop with 2pair+

#9 11-28-2005, 05:55 PM

Good point.

#10 11-28-2005, 06:11 PM

Reads would help. I like check raising this kind of hand from the SB to make my marginal hand seem stronger. It may get you a free card on the turn, but it does make your turn lead seem stronger as well. Without reads I don't mind the river bet. If you check you are likely to get a bet from someone who thinks you have nothing but a flush draw and would have to make a hard call with 3rd pair.