Flopped nuts but very vulnerable

[Alchemist]

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That means you will not have the nuts on the river 78.8% of the time.


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I ran a couple sims for fun (Omaha high only) with a sort of worst case scenario vs. my hand.

Board: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Me: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 18.84%
button: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 1.32%
MP2: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0%
Club flush draw: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4.90%
Heart flush draw: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 24.53%
Set of fives: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 41.03%
Better str draw: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7.70%
Better str draw: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 1.68%
(If I eliminate the club flush draw, my equity goes up to 22.82% which mesh with your calculations).

Turn

Board: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Me: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 27.09%
button: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6.66%
MP2: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0%
Club flush draw: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 17.68%
Heart flush draw: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 16.07%
Set of fives: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 23.79
Better str draw: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6.73%
Better str draw: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 1.98%

[Buzz]

Alchemist - I think your best move is to check and fold this to a bet. I checked "something else" because I don't see that category on your check list.

I havent looked at your results, nor do I intend to. Playing this dog might have worked out fine for you this time. But whatever happened to you on this particular occasion, when seven of you see the flop, playing a seven high flopped straight with no redraws and no decent shot at low will too often bring you grief.

I know it's hard to fold the flopped nuts, but I think that's your play.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[BBC Z]

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I know it's hard to fold the flopped nuts, but I think that's your play.


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Buzz,

Have you considered the implied odds that are present when you hold the high (current) nuts on a 3 low board? Players love to bet the nut low, which usually results in the two low players quartering themselves and the high making off like a bandit on the hand.

Shouldn't the standard line be on this hand to call the flop looking for a blank and raise the turn when it blanks? With only one card to come, the odds of draws coming in decreases substantially when compared to the flop.

I can't understand the reasoning behind folding the nut straight on the flop in a game of Low Limit O8. PLO8, I can believe it because of the risk of getting stacked off on the flop.

[Little Fishy]

I'm new to the game but after much consideration I think this might be the right move...

check and see what happens...

1. If a bet comes from early position and it comes back to you for 1 than call and bet out on the turn as long as no scare card comes. what you're doing here is trying to create more outs for yourself on the river. there isn't much aggression if 1 out of 6 makes a bet, and so you can trim the field and may not even have to dump it if a scare card comes down the river, a check call could win you half the pot.

2. If a single bet comes from late position than raise making ot 2 to the majority of the field. again you're increasing your outs by forcing out hands that are drawing to crack you.

3. if it comes back to you for 2+ then look at the action. if it goes bet raise fold to you than pop it making it 3. if this happens then idealy it'll get capped by the raiser and you and the two innitial aggressors will see the turn. what you're hoping for here is that the low half is quartered if this happens then you're getting excelent equity if a flush hits you'll have to reconsider, but most players don't play bad straight draws for 3 bets thus freeing more outs. additionaly you'll be able to be pretty certain you have the only high, because a hand like A267, A367 would probably raise preflop from late position. If more people call than you can confidently release any bad turn.
If it goes bet raise callers, then your action, then you should let of the hand, you're going to be up against at best some big draws and or made lows, at worst made nut lows drawing high.


again I'm new to o/8. how does my reasoning look... is this a bit to fancy for low limits or is this right on??

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you considered the implied odds that are present when you hold the high (current) nuts on a 3 low board?

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BBC - No. I haven't. There are more scare cards in the deck than blanks that, coming on the turn, would enable a better high hand than a seven high straight.

And the cards that are blanks on the turn open up additional possibilities to beat your seven high straight on the river.

It doesn't always happen that the seven high straight doesn't hold up. But with this many opponents seeing the flop, even when the seven high straight does hold up, it is often quartered or sixthed.

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Players love to bet the nut low,...

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Indeed they do.

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...which usually results in the two low players quartering themselves...

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That's not true. (Replace "usually" with "often" and it would be true). You figure to get quartered less often than you don't get quartered.

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and the high making off like a bandit on the hand.

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This is a situation where a seven high straight, if it does hold up, is almost as likely to get quartered as the nut low.

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Shouldn't the standard line be on this hand to call the flop looking for a blank and raise the turn when it blanks?

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Well... you're out of position in the big blind. Who are you going to raise? (I realize you're talking about raising on the third betting round after a blank on the turn - but the small blind has already passively checked on the second betting round).

But it's an interesting idea. Might work sometimes.

However, what I do with this hand is check on the second betting round, hoping everybody else checks too. Then if anyone bets, I hope I have the discipline to fold. Whatever I write here, it's not easy for me to fold the flopped nuts in the heat of battle. But I think it's the correct play here.

When you get to the river, I don't think the seven high straight will still be the nuts. You might still win all or a portion of the high half of the pot with the hand/board, even though it's not the nuts. Or it's not impossible that the hand will still be the nuts on the river.

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With only one card to come, the odds of draws coming in decreases substantially when compared to the flop.

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The odds of anyone catching a favorable river card for a draw they had on the flop are about the same as the odds they had of catching that card on the turn. (Actually slightly better). In addition, there will be additional draws after the turn.

Thus your flopped seven high straight is more likely to get out-drawn on the river than the turn.

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I can't understand the reasoning behind folding the nut straight on the flop in a game of Low Limit O8.

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Right or wrong, here's the reasoning: You don't win enough on the times your flopped seven high straight holds up on the river to compensate for what you lose on the times it doesn't.

All flopped straights are not equal.

A flopped ace-high, king-high, or queen-high straight with re-draws involves different considerations. I think if you play any of these hands ten times, you'll win more money than you'll lose.

A flopped seven-high, eight-high, or nine-high straight with no decent low and no redraws is not a favorite to win on the river. I think if you play any of these hands ten times, you'll lose more money than you'll win.

Buzz

[Little Fishy]

an edit on part 3... if it goes bet caller raise, toss it or if it goes bet raise from early position toss it

[Buzz]

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check and see what happens...

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Little Fishy - I think you don't want to play the hand this passively if you're planning to call a bet with the hand. I'm not sure, but I think you might generally do better by playing the hand more aggressively.

If you're planning to fold to a bet, then checking to see what happens makes sense. In that case, maybe nobody will bet and then you can decide what to do after the (free) turn card.

[ QUOTE ]
1. If a bet comes from early position and it comes back to you for 1 than call and bet out on the turn as long as no scare card comes. what you're doing here is trying to create more outs for yourself on the river. there isn't much aggression if 1 out of 6 makes a bet, and so you can trim the field and may not even have to dump it if a scare card comes down the river, a check call could win you half the pot.

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Creative. But it costs you a small bet on the second betting round and then it will cost you at least one big bet on the third betting round to play this way. I think you tend to dribble away a lot of money chasing with these hands.

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2. If a single bet comes from late position than raise making ot 2 to the majority of the field. again you're increasing your outs by forcing out hands that are drawing to crack you.

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You don't have any outs. You might force out hands that are drawing against you. A considerable threat to your seven high straight are hands that have the low and also a draw to the high. You're not likely going to force them out.

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3. if it comes back to you for 2+ then look at the action. if it goes bet raise fold to you than pop it making it 3. if this happens then idealy it'll get capped by the raiser and you and the two innitial aggressors will see the turn. what you're hoping for here is that the low half is quartered...

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You're almost as likely to get quartered here as the low hand.

And meanwhile you're sinking a lot of money into this pot.

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...because a hand like A267, A367 would probably raise preflop from late position.

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Not necessarily. Depends on various factors. Some players might raise before the flop from late position with these hands, but others wouldn't.

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how does my reasoning look

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You'll have to try it out in a live game to see for yourself what happens.

Usually your flopped nut straight will not be quite as bad as the one in this example.

Buzz