Face death and spit in it's eye? Or flee like a frickin coward?

[DesertCat]

We were down to about 100 out of 400. I had been cold-decked and dropped to 1000 before I started getting more aggressive about blind steals. When I was dealt the ducks I thought this is perfect opportunity, since the BB is fairly tight (21% VPIP) and I have some type of hand.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (10 handed) converter

Button (t1385)
SB (t642)
BB (t4370)
UTG (t3675)
UTG+1 (t2165)
UTG+2 (t885)
MP1 (t4475)
MP2 (t6935)
Hero (t1722)
CO (t2670)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t400</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t800</font>

I figured it was either all-in or fold. What's your decision and why?

[Sadat X]

[ QUOTE ]
I figured it was either all-in or fold. What's your decision and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not neccesarily. His minimum raise from the blind indicates he wants you to call. If he has a big hand AA-JJ, you have tremendous implied odds with your dueces. If your stack was a little bigger I might call here.

That being said, you're stack is so small you can't call and I would opt for folding like a coward here. I don't want to risk going out as a 4-1 dog if he holds any pair.

[Unparagoned]

If you want to play the 2's here, I think it's a push preflop. Otherwise, you need to fold this hand. In this situation, you raise to 400, the big blind re-raises (not a min-raise by the way, whoever said it was a min-raise) to 800. If you come over the top, the BB is getting about 3-1 on his money, so he's calling for sure. This means that you know you are getting called with a hand that at BEST is a slightly favorable coinflip and could well be dominated. I think I fold this and mentally prepare myself to push next time I want to take down the blinds.

[DesertCat]

I folded. But later I started to second guess my decision. Isn't villains odds of having a pair usually something like 6/22? So if I push I'm getting almost 2-1 on my money (assuming zero fold equity), and my pot equity should be something like

1/8*6/22+1/2*16/22 = 40%

So isn't this a push?

[willie]

not for me it isn't.

you're at best a coinflip here, jam it in next time so you can't get played back at.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I folded. But later I started to second guess my decision. Isn't villains odds of having a pair usually something like 6/22? So if I push I'm getting almost 2-1 on my money (assuming zero fold equity), and my pot equity should be something like

1/8*6/22+1/2*16/22 = 40%

So isn't this a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

villain is 1/17 to have a pair before he raises. once he raises, that number goes up dramatically but it's (obviously) player-dependent.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]

villain is 1/17 to have a pair before he raises. once he raises, that number goes up dramatically but it's (obviously) player-dependent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm thinking of the ratio of pairs in "big hands" as being 16 different ways to make AK, but only 6 to make AA. So I'm not sure that's right, does anyone know how to figure out a reasonable ratio?

And you're right about villain's behavior influencing likely hands. Thinking about it more, I have trouble seeing anyone only raising half my stack with a big Ax. There is no-one else in the hand, they're out of position, so they'd want to see all five cards if I play, that has to be a push. I also can't see them doing anything but pushing with QQ or below. So in reality I was probably up against KK/AA since he was inviting so much action.

[B Mando]

"So in reality I was probably up against KK/AA since he was inviting so much action. "

That was my guess.

[ntg816]

I don't have anything of note to add to this thread, but I think the subject line is great.