Steal attempt from UTG with 4.5xBB left

[WinBig]

$10 NL rebuy tourney on PokerStars pays top 99. 105 players left and the blinds are 3000/6000 and I have 27,000. I pick up KQ os UTG and I push. Even though there are 6 players until the money I think this is a good spot to pick up the blinds or possibly double up against a medium pocket pair in a coin flip. If I fold I probably make the money but with only 3xBB and no real power to steal blinds - or am I incorrect in making this assumption? QQ in BB called and I was out in 105th.

[ntg816]

Consider that I am the most cowardly player in the world when it comes to bubble play (no one on this board is allowed to use that against me), I wouldn't try this steal from first position.

Maybe in the CO or on the button when it is folded to me, but not here.

[pizzaman]

Right time in the tourney to make this play. UTG is a tough position for it.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
If I fold I probably make the money but with only 3xBB and no real power to steal blinds - or am I incorrect in making this assumption?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, it's true that it will be tough to steal blinds, especially b/c the bubble probably won't burst until you're somewhat out of position. so you'll have to get lucky and win a showdown or two to get a reasonable stack.

but if you steal here and then pay blinds, you'll only have 4.5x left anyway. you're still a long shot to make a significant amount of money. couple that with the fact that the blinds will go up soon and your 4.5x will become 3x.

AQ i might push, but KQ is not strong enough.

the hands you really don't want to see are QQ-AA, AK, AQ.
QQ, KK - 3 combos each
AA - 6
AK, AQ - 12 each

total is 36 combos. 36 / 1326 = 2.7%, so each opponent has a 2.7% chance of having you dominated. as a rough estimate, that means there's about a 21% chance that you're going to be in very bad shape. (and some chance you'll be called by a 99-type hand, which is still pretty bad this close to the money).

[WinBig]

bump

[betgo]

I don't consider this a steal. UTG, there is about a 25% chance someone has one of the 5 hands KQ is in troulbe against. Against a pair or Ax, you are an underdog but EV+ with pot odds. The blinds are 1/3 of your stack.