NFL Home Field Advantage

J_Treez · #1 11-23-2005, 04:12 PM

When handicapping NFL games, how many points do you allow for home field advantage? I've had decent results allowing 2-3 points, but I have no idea if this would be theoretically correct.

Mr_J · #2 11-23-2005, 05:02 PM

HFA in the nfl has shown to be worth 3pts on average in the past.

#3 11-23-2005, 05:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
When handicapping NFL games, how many points do you allow for home field advantage? I've had decent results allowing 2-3 points, but I have no idea if this would be theoretically correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's generally accepted at 3

VarlosZ · #4 11-23-2005, 05:20 PM

I'd say somewhere between 3 and 3.5, but whatever. It can be a little more if the game is somewhere that is notoriously difficult for the visitor (KC, Denver), or if there are other circumstances (short week following Monday Night game, then travelling).

craig r · #5 11-24-2005, 05:06 AM

The best thing to do is add up how many points the home team has won by and divide by the amount of games. Obviously you need to use more than one season. I would go back to 1990 and do this.

One thing you don't want to do is by team. What I mean by this is taking DAL, for example, and adding up how much they won by at home since 1990 and dividing by the number of games. The reason you don't want to do a particular team is because some years the team is much worse than other years. So, your results will be highly skewed.

But, my guess is that, if you do add up all the home teams margin of victories (or losses) youw will get 3.

craig