Burningyen's bustout hand (how would you play it?)

[burningyen]

Some more info for you all: if checked to, Villain would bet out with any 2 cards about 75% of the time.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
This is unbelievable. I don't play multis any more, but many posters are saying you could/should push - isn't that a little retarded? Your poker life in a once a year $10,000 buy in event is on the line and you're 50/50 (or worse) to win if you get called.

This is simple stuff. Go for your draw but never, ever push. It's not like the blinds are killing you.

edit> and it's not like he's a short stack either - he has you well covered and might even decide to gamble himself.
Too much aggression with this hand at this stage is crazy.

[/ QUOTE ]

so getting an overlay on a coinflip is a bad thing?

[Masquerade]

Completely agree. You've got got zip but a strong draw. Why not just check, let villain bet at it. Call and see if turn helps. You can check raise allin if it does.

[devilsshadow]

This is a tough spot...however, IMO, there are a lot of folk who are taking the aggressive strategy too far. Obviously every situation is different and carries judgment calls which have the potential to make or break you. I think back to a piece of advice from Larry Phillips regarding what I consider the most important rule in poker: Starting cards..."why put yourself in a position where you'll be climbing uphill to win a pot?"

Understood you were the BB; and, please allow some understanding since none of us were there to witness and size up your villian. If he had been limping in every pot and betting with crap repeatedly, yet has held the table chip lead for a while, my assumption is going to be that he is setting the table up to take someone's whole stack when he does have a great hand. IOW-he limps w/ 10-8s...limps w/ J-9s...limps w/ K7os....maybe he gets lucky on a few of these crap rags and the table sees it, thinks he's being blindly aggressive - realistically, what's going on is he wants to be able to limp w/ AA and get someone to raise preflop so he can trap...We cannot assume your villian is a terrible player, I think for obvious reasons.

Unfortunately, you must respect the fact that he limped from the button - if he was being blindly aggressive and simply crappin all over folk - I think he would've raised from the button...You have yet to tell us what the villian held on this hand...but I'm gonna go ahead and predict that you'll tell us he had JJ,QQ,KK...

I'm on a tangent now...back to my point...yeah you've got a great draw, a chance at a big stack of chips, or, you go broke. I simply cannot understand why there would be so many who advise you push all in here. You've got a decent stack and decent skills, why not check the hand, check the villians strength - if he does have a strong hand (KK,QQ,JJ) - he'll prob slowplay anyway giving you the opportunity to call for the draw at a cheap price. If the SB pops it up in front of you - I personally fold and wait for a more profitable opportunity to trap weaker players on the flop/turn. I wholly agree with the last opinion, especially the reasoning (too early in the tourney).

Now, if you're at the final table and situations are similar...I think in this case I pot bet the flop, if villian or SB comes over the top, all in; if they push over the top all in; at this point, I'm personally still gonna gamble for two reasons - 1. if I win, I'm in 1st and great position to score a decades wage 2. if I lose, I'm at the final table, I still made a year's wage....

Peace

Sean

[BZ_Zorro]

[ QUOTE ]
so getting an overlay on a coinflip is a bad thing?

[/ QUOTE ] This is a $10,000, once a year tournament.
Back to basics.

Goals in a tournament(in order):

1. Surivival
2. Chip Accumulation

Sure, go ahead and bet the draw, but if he raises your flop bet, what does that say? A raise means your folding equity is going way down. He's also a deep stack, and may decide to gamble on more marginal holdings like a flush draw + top pair.

edit: just read about villain being laggy...doesn't change anything though. If he's raising a pot bet it's not worth the hassle imo. Lags can make crazy calls too, and any K or Q is dead even here.

You're risking your tournament life on (at best) a 50/50 if he calls. This ain't the final table, blinds aren't killing you. There is no good reason to push here and forget #1.

[burningyen]

For now I will only say you have read Villain's strategy exactly right (limp to trap). I saw him play well after the flop and thought of him as dangerous despite that one bad call he made.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so getting an overlay on a coinflip is a bad thing?

[/ QUOTE ] This is a $10,000, once a year tournament.
Back to basics.

Goals in a tournament(in order):

1. Surivival
2. Chip Accumulation

Sure, go ahead and bet the draw, but if he raises your flop bet, what does that say? A raise means your folding equity is going way down. He's also a deep stack, and may decide to gamble on more marginal holdings like a flush draw + top pair.

edit: just read about villain being laggy...doesn't change anything though. If he's raising a pot bet it's not worth the hassle imo. Lags can make crazy calls too, and any K or Q is dead even here.

You're risking your tournament life on (at best) a 50/50 if he calls. This ain't the final table, blinds aren't killing you. There is no good reason to push here and forget #1.

[/ QUOTE ]

we have substantially different goals in said tourney. Did you play?

[adanthar]

The way you describe this guy, you have about zero FE here no matter what you do. The flop is likely to have hit him somehow and you have the bottom end of this draw, not the top, so your pair outs are worthless.

I'm not going anywhere on the flop to anything less than an overbet, but if he wants it badly enough to make me fold a blank turn, fine, he can have it. I'm not playing a big pot with a coinflip hand when blinds are this low and he makes calls that bad.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a $10,000, once a year tournament.
Back to basics.

Goals in a tournament(in order):

1. Chip Accumulation


[/ QUOTE ]

FYP. BTW, you weak tightie.

[Doc7]

Dan Harrington agrees with his number 2, and I don't think he's anyone who's advice I would sneeze at.