$22 bubble short stack is all in

This is difficult but I play the fold because you have the not g00t hand.

[pooh74]

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This is difficult but I play the fold because you have the not g00t hand.

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[pooh74]

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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button (t590)
SB (t3495)
Hero (t2125)
UTG (t1790)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button is all in (590), SB calls, Hero calls t290.

Flop: (t1180) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t1000</font>, Hero??

I was hoping to just check it down, but SB apparently doesn't want to. He probably has an ace and wants to protect it. Do I call with the nut flush draw? If I call and lose, I could still get 3rd place if SB wins.

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Your 2nd place equity is pretty good if you get out of the way.

[tewall]

Assuming .5, .3., .2 payout and no math errors, if you fold and shortie wins, your equity is 21%; if big guy wins, 30%. If you call and win, around 40%. If you call and lose, at best 23%, at worst 0% (best case being you lose no more on the river and shortie loses).

This looks like a fold. You don't really gain that much if you win, compared to the risk you're taking.

[Femto]

If anybody is interested, I worked out the math as best I could using ICM/pokerstove for my own practice. In the end, it looks like folding yields a 3.6% gain in equity (+$36 in a $100+9). Feel free to critique my math--see blog link to the left for full post.

[Uncle Wiggly]

I suspect the math calculations justify a fold here.
But what the hell, go for the gusto!
You're in great shape to win.
Call!
[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]