Burningyen's bustout hand (how would you play it?)

[DesertCat]

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Dan Harrington agrees with his number 2, and I don't think he's anyone who's advice I would sneeze at.

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Dan disagrees with his #1, so what's your point? You have to accumulate chips to place or win in any tournament. This is an opportunity to do so. The only way you don't push is if you are 100% sure the guy can't lay down his hand.

BTW, I like leading out with a half pot, to see if he'll raise. If he does, I'm all-in. At that point the pot is at least 3k, and I've got enough left to provide some folding equity.

Even if he calls don't, I've bet 11k to win 14-15k, on a coin flip and all top pros, Dan Harrington and Paul Phillips included, say you don't pass up +EV edges like that early in a tourney, no matter how narrow, if you want to win it.

[fimbulwinter]

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I'm certainly open to persuasion that something other than check/calling is better here.

Check/pushing 14K into a 2K pot isn't one of the things I have in mind, though.

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here's something i have yet to see ANYBODY do in this thread: do the math.

you do it, make up your own folding equity %, and percentages for his likely holdings. then compare the EV of busting here with precieved future EV sacrificed.

then complain about my line. until you do that you're just playing gut reaction, weak/tight poker.

fim

[Seadood228]

I think the C/r allin is a superior move to checkraising the pot, especially if the villian has shown that he can make a monster move on a bluff. But as far as FE is concerned, I think you can fold most hands that would fold to a c/r allin by check/calling and leading the turn. IMO the results will be similar if he's got something marginal, and you won't end up having your stack in the middle as a 40/60 or 35/65.

And I don't think the math is going to tell us much since c/r allin is going to be close to + EV even if your FE is 0. That doesn't neccessarily make it the best play in a tourney situation though. In a cash game, of course.

[fimbulwinter]

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And I don't think the math is going to tell us much

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The math i described (chip EV with modifiers for loss of future EV and payout strucure) tells us everything possible to know about this move. comparing EV calculations from that vs other lines, by definition, gives the best line.

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since c/r allin is going to be close to + EV even if your FE is 0. That doesn't neccessarily make it the best play in a tourney situation though. In a cash game, of course.

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did you miss the part where i adjusted strict calculations to tourney EV calculations? you're responding as though I simply said "compare chip EV's" which i clearly did not.


as for calling and leading turn, i think it's an awful line as it puts you in a terrible spot on the turn when he does have a hand. do you really intend to fold this hand if you bet the turn and are raised? even checkraising the turn all-in is a better play than a stop and go.

fim

[burningyen]

Thanks for the discussion, guys. I thought it was an interesting hand. I knew that if Villain bet he would bet the size of the pot. He began the tournament betting tentatively but became more confident as his stack grew and started to put people to decisions for their stacks. Here's how the hand played out:

I checked planning to check-raise, although I wouldn't have minded a free turn, either. I wanted him to check or fold his Ax, Qx, 7x or his JJ-88, 66-22. I didn't think I could blow him off a K, no matter the kicker. If I check-call I have no idea if he'll pay me off if I hit on the turn, but I am positive he won't let me see the river for the right price if I miss. I should have given more thought to what I would have done if SB had check-raised, but I really didn't see that as a possibility at the time.

Villain bet 1000. I had no read on the bet. SB folded. I said "Raise...4000" and threw out a 5000 chip intending to make it 4000 total, but the dealer said "5000" and I decided not to correct her (in fact, she was probably right, I should have said "raise to 4000"). I do wonder a little about my raise amount. For example, would a raise to 2500 or 3000 have accomplished everything I needed to accomplish?

Anyway, Villain thought for about 10 seconds (a long time for him) and pushed out 15k, setting me all in. At this point I sense he likes his hand but is worried about a better one, and I'm easily getting the odds against something like 2-pair or a decent K. I called and was extremely disappointed to see him flip over K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], which had me crushed. I said "No hearts, please," and the dealer obliged, flipping over 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Although the bustout does sting, I have no regrets. Playing in the WSOP was everything I could have hoped for. Just the process of preparing for the WSOP raised my game 2 notches above what it was even a month ago. And I had never concentrated as hard for as long as I did Saturday and now realize that my normal game pre-WSOP was only a fraction of what I'm capable of when I'm trying my hardest. I still have a ton to learn but feel like I'll have more direction to my learning from now on. Oh, and I got to play with James Woods for 4 hours and see lots of celebrities, woo hoo!

P.S. Just to add some color to the thread, you can find a picture of Villain if you go to the WSOP website and select Saturday 7/9/05, main event, gallery ME1C10K_S003, picture DSC_4596. I believe his name is Jared. I hope he wins the whole thing.

[RoundersRocks!]

Yeah, pushing is a bad play.
Why risk a tournament ending coin flip to try to put pressure on a loose opponent in an unraised pot? Especially when you are a favorite to be betting on a later street with the nuts or near nuts? I think you want him in there with anything, so that you can be payed off when you make your hand. Leaving yourself the opprotunity to fold what could very easily end up being a J high has some merit too.

Against this sort of opponent, I would probably check and hope that he bets so you can call. You build a pot big enough to hopefully help commit your opponent and small enough you can still get away from if you need to. The main reason I call though is table image, a player who plays this way is pretty frustrated when the blind often calls his stabs at the pot.

There is no reason to fear being forced out if you miss and there is a big bet turn by your opponnent, that is just folding when you are behind.

I think table image manipulation could be a strong argument to play this hand almost any way you want though.

[Sluss]

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and believe Burningyen should let us in on just how this hand played out so that we can know that I win....lol


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Knowing a hand is someone's bustout hand means that very often you will see some sort of strange hand. We are trying to learn here what is the proper play for this situation. If everytime a habitual LAG limper limps in on the button you think he has a big pair you are going to lose a lot of money.

The idea here is to put the button on a likely range of hands and what is the best way to play against that range of hands.

[Sluss]

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FWIW, with this particular type of guppy, stack size and table setup, I would also be playing Kx, KQ, A x , a set and the occasional QJ exactly the same way.

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Are you allowing the LAG to dictate the betting paterns to much here?

If the player is going to be aggressive with anything here what type of information do we gain with a check call?