Sox/Cubs 5-21 Questions

J_Treez · #1 05-21-2005, 10:19 AM

Any thoughts on this one? Particularly on the pitching matchup. Sportsbook is paying +115 on the Sox, and that looks pretty good. I bet them yesteday and it was smooth sailing.

mrbaseball · #2 05-21-2005, 10:33 AM

I have White Sox here too. Despite the fact I am a diehard WhiteSox fan and Cub loather I am not putting any fan bias into this play.

The starters are about a wash and the numbers between them are very close. White Sox have better offense, defense and bullpen and are winning at a much better rate. Just plugging in my numbers like I do for every game I have a fair value line of +-146 with the White Sox favored. Since the line is nowhere near this I think it's a decent play.

Since the 4 major catagories I look at are winning %, starters, offense and bullpen it's easy to see why I favor the White Sox here. Starters wash, Sox dominate winning %, Sox slight edge in offense (although no DH hurts that), and Sox get decent edge in bullpen. So we have one wash, one near wash and two White Sox dominated catagories making them the favorites here in my book.

This is an enormous grudge match though so anything goes. But for pure value I see it with the White Sox. Also Zambrano was questionable earlier in the week for this one as he was having some arm and shoulder discomfort. Before Dusty is done with him he'll be on the DL in traction [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

J_Treez · #3 05-21-2005, 10:39 AM

On the DH issue, Frank Thomas is rehabbing in Triple A anyway, so I haven't considered NL ball as much of a disadvantage as if he were healthy.

I'm having trouble figuring out why NOT to bet this game. Even if they lose today, surely the Sox are good for 2 of 3 in the series,huh? So the Sunday would either put me up or possibly sweep.

mrbaseball · #4 05-21-2005, 11:00 AM

Actually no DH for a team like the White Sox is fairly big. The regular DH this season (Everett) has been a big factor and he has driven in many important runs. There is a possibility he starts in LF today over Podsednik which I'm not sure is good for the defense or offense.

All reports are that Contreras is a major liability with a bat in his hands. Zambrano is a decent hitter. Contreras could leave quickly for a pinch hitter. Zambrano could leave early for a sore arm (or arguing with an ump or throwing at someone or just being the overall tool he is). If this game gets decided by bullpens the White Sox have even a bigger advantage.