Another bad play....how do you play it. - Page 2

ZebraAss · #11 02-19-2005, 07:54 PM

BB has K 10
UTG Folded AQ saying " Wow i folded AQ, dang I am good"...(what ever that means)

I won, i liked the river...A LOT.

johnnybeef · #12 02-19-2005, 09:12 PM

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Every part of your post is seriously flawed. Sorry.

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how so?

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SNG's are not 'won on the bubble' any more than they are 'won at level 1'. They are won when you collect all of the other people's chips

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while this is true, your thinking is flawed. lets think about this in a risk/reward fashion. your reward is doubling up, your risk is getting busted. while it is true that you will double up many more times then you will bust, the reward of doubling up (or more likely winning a medium sized pot) is no where near worth the risk of busting. this is atributed to the fact that doubling up in no way shape or form guarantees your doubling up.

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this sure seems like a good time

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i disagree, here is why (taken from a hand that, ironically enough, was played while i was responding to this):

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed) converter

Button (t835)
SB (t770)
BB (t800)
UTG (t1580)
UTG+1 (t935)
MP1 (t1000)
Hero (t775)
MP3 (t550)
CO (t755)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t15, MP1 calls t15, Hero raises to t65, 1 fold, CO calls t65, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls t50, MP1 calls t50.

Flop: (t285) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets t275, CO folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises to t550, Hero raises to t710 (All-In), MP1 calls t160.

Turn: (t1705) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1705) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t1705

MP1 has Kd Qs (straight, ace high).
Hero has Jh Jd (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: MP1 wins t1705.

Phil Van Sexton · #13 02-19-2005, 09:25 PM

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BB has K 10
UTG Folded AQ saying " Wow i folded AQ, dang I am good"...(what ever that means)

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This is exactly why I like a push here. BB made a stupid call, and now UTG has the odds to call with AQ. Now you have to dodge an 8, Q, or K. Bad fold by UTG considering he had plenty of chips to take a look at the turn.

silversurfer · #14 02-19-2005, 09:26 PM

You said it yourself - you are too weak tight. Fold 99 pf? Are you insane? If you want to call and play for set value, fine, play it safe (personally, I raise, but that's just me).

Learn how to get away from your hands. If the flop comes KQJ, then you have an easy decision. But if it comes AK9, chances are you are going to be kicking yourself for making a bad call. It's almost always worth playing for sets because of the enormous implied odds (within reason, I'm not saying call all-in with 22 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

Insanely weak-tight. And your example shows nothing. Bet harder with JJ. That's why you lost the hand. Bump it up to 100.

Zebra, your play was fine here. Pushes on the flop with sets are standard, but you played it pretty well.

adanthar · #15 02-19-2005, 09:35 PM

The second part of your post is a prime example of missing the forest for the trees and the third part perfectly illustrates why.

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i disagree, here is why (taken from a hand that, ironically enough, was played while i was responding to this):
MP1 has Kd Qs (straight, ace high).
Hero has Jh Jd (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: MP1 wins t1705.

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Yeah, doubling up doesn't guarantee doubling up. Yeah, at some point, the risk of busting outweighs the reward. And to prove that, you just posted a hand in which you had over a 70% chance of winning as an example of why you should either just limp JJ PF, or fold middle set/check it behind on a scary board, or...I dunno. I'm tempted to just laugh at you and let it go but there are other people here that don't get this, either.

So here's the explanation: If you pass up 70% chances, which is what you have in your hand and the OP has vs. QJ in his hand, because you just want to get to the bubble - and do so in a $11 or $22 SNG where your folding equity is approximately the same on the bubble as it is on level 3 - you shouldn't be playing. That's not even weak tight, it's just horrible poker and posting that as advice is worse.

If you have AK in the BB and I have QJ and go all in PF UTG on the first hand while flashing you my cards, not calling me is a crime against poker. I know this board has a bubble focus, but you need to know how to play to even get to the bubble, and if you're passing up 70% edges to get there you don't know how to play. Period.

johnnybeef · #16 02-19-2005, 10:05 PM

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Yeah, doubling up doesn't guarantee doubling up. Yeah, at some point, the risk of busting outweighs the reward. And to prove that, you just posted a hand in which you had over a 70% chance of winning as an example of why you should either just limp JJ PF, or fold middle set/check it behind on a scary board, or...I dunno. I'm tempted to just laugh at you and let it go but there are other people here that don't get this, either.

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*DISCLAIMER* zebra, you played your hand fine, this has turned into another discussion.

for what its worth, i would normally proceed with great caution in the example that i posted. however, i had just read this thread and figured why not give it a go (after all if i lose i could supplement an argument with it) a 70% edge at this stage of a sng is not enough. many people on this board discuss EV a lot, EV is only applicable when someone has an unlimited bankroll which in a tourney you do not. sngs (and tournaments in general) are all about one thing: surviving to the end. why the hell would you want to take a 30% chance of dying early in order to get slightly ahead of the pack when you are currently in the mix of things, and you will encounter much better situations that will arise to get ahead of the pack in the future. patience is a virtue in the game of survival.

adanthar · #17 02-19-2005, 10:21 PM

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a 70% edge at this stage of a sng is not enough. many people on this board discuss EV a lot, EV is only applicable when someone has an unlimited bankroll which in a tourney you do not.

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Oh man. I don't even know where to begin.

I'll just say this: your thinking about this is so far off that I would literally rather back a 2+2'er who limps any two suited than someone who plays middle set on a somewhat scary board cautiously in a Party SNG. Even with the bad PF handicap, given some decent postflop skills the first guy *will* make more money.

Good luck getting to the bubble and finding a > 70/30 edge to double through with your 500 chips. Just don't try this anywhere above the lowest Party limits. What you've just posted is so wrong that even a typical $33 player will run over you so fast you won't know where the train came from.