Good place or a Bad Place? AQo.

adsman · #1 09-10-2005, 01:33 PM

My 2nd hand at the table so no reads apart from 20 hands of datamining. Sb was 40/8/1.4 and UTG was 49/4/1.2

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, UTG raises, MP1 calls, Hero??

@bsolute_luck · #2 09-10-2005, 01:47 PM

whew that is tough. i'm tempted to cold call and see what the turn brings, but i'm nervous that SB might 3-bet behind us and it is going to be an expensive hand especially since we're behind a lot of villain's possible 3-betting hands here.

but, figuring you're not drawing dead to JT (which is doubtful at this point), so i'm guessing you have ~3-4 outs and getting 9:1 and you need 10.5:1, so with implied odds and the slim fact we could still have the best hand, i think cold calling is the best idea.

i thought about 3-betting, but someone else is going to have to convince me of that as we have a strong hand but we're just asking to get capped and i'd like to see the turn right now.

Jaran · #3 09-10-2005, 04:23 PM

I think the difference between folding and cc'ing is minimal. I would prolly cc, cuz I'm a stubborn cuss, but I wouldn't argue against a fold. I really can't see 3betting being a good play here.

-Jaran

#4 09-10-2005, 04:41 PM

UTG's raise has me scared because it followed pf raise/3-bet and flop bet by other players who were indicating much strength, giving me information that UTG's hand is likely very strong (unless he's a complete maniac, which, despite his numbers, I'm not sure we can say with such a limited number of hands on him). I go into calldown mode, and dare I say it, am even tempted to fold (but won't). I don't think anyone is folding to your 3-bet in light of the prior action, either.

#5 09-10-2005, 04:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
but, figuring you're not drawing dead to JT (which is doubtful at this point)

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean T9? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I think T9 is UTG's most likely hand. I know it doesn't make much sense for a good player to call the raise/3-bet with T9, but I think it was a possible range given his early indication numbers, and then it jumped to the top with his flop play.

#6 09-10-2005, 05:08 PM

This is a hard line to draw. I would not be surprised if it went 4 bets here. SB already showed aggression and there is no reason to think he won't 3 bet this behind you. Because of the expectation for it to get capped, I 3bet and see what comes on the turn. If a blank falls and aggression is still shown in front of you again, then you can fold.

aK13 · #7 09-10-2005, 05:37 PM

3 bizzet.

@bsolute_luck · #8 09-10-2005, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but, figuring you're not drawing dead to JT (which is doubtful at this point)

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean T9? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I think T9 is UTG's most likely hand. I know it doesn't make much sense for a good player to call the raise/3-bet with T9, but I think it was a possible range given his early indication numbers, and then it jumped to the top with his flop play.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, i'm not basing his holding on his preflop play. i'm basing figuring a straight isn't blowing out the field here.

and yes i meant T9.

#9 09-10-2005, 06:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but, figuring you're not drawing dead to JT (which is doubtful at this point)

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean T9? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I think T9 is UTG's most likely hand. I know it doesn't make much sense for a good player to call the raise/3-bet with T9, but I think it was a possible range given his early indication numbers, and then it jumped to the top with his flop play.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, i'm not basing his holding on his preflop play. i'm basing figuring a straight isn't blowing out the field here.

and yes i meant T9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'm struggling trying to determine what UTG has that is less than a straight that he would raise with here, and for what purpose???

Also, I wasn't being a smart alek about T9 -- I just thought I might be missing something, which happens often.

@bsolute_luck · #10 09-10-2005, 06:15 PM

KT, QT, JT, 99- mabye someone would like to mathematically work it out, but i figuring there are as many hands he could have that we beat as hands that beat us...

(and i didn't think you were being smart about the T9)