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#11
12-01-2005, 03:08 PM
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Re: I win, now what?
I say raise.
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#12
12-01-2005, 03:09 PM
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Re: I win, now what?
Is this the type of player that can fold a 10 if you raise the turn? If so, I'm calling down in what seems to be WA/WB situation. It's a big pot and you only need to win about 25% of the time to make it profitable.
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#13
12-01-2005, 03:11 PM
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Re: I win, now what?
[ QUOTE ]
Is this the type of player that can fold a 10 if you raise the turn? If so, I'm calling down in what seems to be WA/WB situation. It's a big pot and you only need to win about 25% of the time to make it profitable. [/ QUOTE ] wtf?
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#14
12-01-2005, 03:12 PM
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Re: I win, now what?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I like a raise here. I put him on AT/KT/QT/JT or middle-strength PP's like 55-77. [/ QUOTE ] I've been considering waiting until the river to raise here. [/ QUOTE ] That's what I'd do. I find players are much more likely to call a river raise than a turn raise.
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#15
12-01-2005, 03:15 PM
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Re: I win, now what?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Is this the type of player that can fold a 10 if you raise the turn? If so, I'm calling down in what seems to be WA/WB situation. It's a big pot and you only need to win about 25% of the time to make it profitable. [/ QUOTE ] wtf? [/ QUOTE ] I don't get the wtf? If you be a little more specific maybe we can discuss it.
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#16
12-01-2005, 03:15 PM
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Re: I win, now what?
I'd raise the turn. I'm not sure why you bet the flop.
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#17
12-01-2005, 03:20 PM
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Re: I win, now what?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Is this the type of player that can fold a 10 if you raise the turn? If so, I'm calling down in what seems to be WA/WB situation. It's a big pot and you only need to win about 25% of the time to make it profitable. [/ QUOTE ] wtf? [/ QUOTE ] I don't get the wtf? If you be a little more specific maybe we can discuss it. [/ QUOTE ] Hero's hand is good about 98% of the time here. This is not a WA/WB situation. -SmileyEH
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#19
12-01-2005, 03:28 PM
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Re: I win, now what?
The preflop play is a GREAT move, so long as it does not cause you to make errors post flop (like betting the flop unimproved into five players).
The flop is ok for your hand. You have three to a straight and a flush as well as two overcards. You have the best hand very rarely; even if no one has paired someone has ace high. Your hand can be valued at 5-7 outs. Three combined outs for the backdoor straight and flush draws and two to four outs for the overcards (discounted because they are dodgy at best). This is not enough of a hand to bet for value. While you could conceivably buy two outs by making KQ fold on the flop, I find it pretty unlikely that this hand would not peel a bet, as would AJ and AQ. No 10, 4, or small pocket pair will be folding here (unless they are in the hands of a very inexperienced rock), and a player in early position looking to face the field with two with a small pocket pair could easily check raise you. I would take a free card, given the nature of your hand. Betting has some advantages. You might get a free river card, fold a 6 out hand like 98, and improve your chances of winning this big pot but I find it more likely you will just put in some bets when behind, and lose most of the time.
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#20
12-01-2005, 03:30 PM
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Re: I win, now what?
Some reasons to raise now:
(1) You may get paid off, which is an improvement over having Villain induce a bluff on the river from your AK after you call the turn (if he would do that). (2) Some cards (A, K, J) will make it harder to get paid off on the river, if Villain holds a medium pair or a hand like T9s. (3) Like Smiley points out, raising in this spot combines well with bluff-raises in other hands, if Villain has a tendency to take bet-fold lines. (4) If Villain has a 5-outer, it's not a tragedy if he folds. Some reasons to call: (1) You'd prefer that Villain not fold a two-outer, if he would have paid off a bet unimproved on the river. (2) Villain may have seen enough river bluff-raises from 2/4 donks that he's more suspicious of a river raise than a turn raise and will be more likely to call. (3) A call here fits in well with a call with AK or AJ. I'm sure those lists are not complete. The decision seems close to me. Generally speaking, I think you're better off raising immediately in this spot at 2/4, but Villain doesn't sound like a typical opponent.
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