(109) Bubble Fun with Raptor

[raptor517]

***** Hand History for Game 3031363654 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Trny:17387708 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Sunday, November 13, 19:00:48 EDT 2005
Table Table 67199 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: Cuban ( $4570 )
Seat 4: iPLaY2PLaCe ( $3205 )
Seat 5: Raptor_517 ( $1280 )
Seat 8: bnaz2004 ( $945 )
Trny:17387708 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Raptor_517 [ Ac Qd ]
Cuban folds.
iPLaY2PLaCe is all-In [3205]
>You have options at Table 67438 Table!.
>You have options at Table 67438 Table!.
Raptor_517 ?

holla

[ClaytonN]

What's Cuban's calling range for the hand after this, and what's IPlay's pushing range?

[raptor517]

well, i wish i could read minds, but if the pusher is decent hes not shoving a HUGE range if he assumes the big blind is decent because he knows he has to call any 2, though if i get in there obv the bb will fold most hands. holla

[GtrHtr]

LOL, I am happy to be the first to vote fold. AINEC

[Bonafone]

Unless the pusher is a complete maniac this is a fold.

[valenzuela]

Im guessing this is a fold, I rather have BB racing.

[bawcerelli]

edit- i thought this open pusher was UTG and big stack was in the BB. given that big stack has folded and this guy is pushing into the two small stacks, I'm calling.

[microbet]

Call, unless pusher sucks.

[bawcerelli]

misread hand history, nevermind.

[SumZero]

I think IPlay should be pushing with just less than 50% of hands. There will be dead money in the pot from the small blind and Raptor will fold 90+% of hands and BB will call 90+% of hands. So most of the time it is putting in 945 to win 2040. So I think he can make that play on top 50% of hands (say any pair, any ace, any king, q5+, J7+, t8+).

For Raptor's decision, assume BB will fold any cards for simplicity. Now Raptor has to call 1130 more to win 2860. His equity against this range is 63.232%.

Call:
So we have call and win: 4570, 1925, 2860, 645 : ICM says $298.2607
Call and lose and we have: $0.

63.232*298.2607 = $188.60

But maybe BB calls with good hands (QQ+,AK?) so this might change our EV slightly (cut down slightly on our EV most likely).

Fold:
a) If BB folds we have: 4570, 3655, 1130, 645 : ICM says $186.11

b) If BB calls and wins we have: 4570, 2260, 1130, 2040 : ICM says $150.60

c) If BB calls and loses we have: 5470, 4300, 1130 : ICM says $251.93

Most likely we'll see something like a:b:c::1:4:5. So our fold prediction is .1*186.11+.4*150.60+.5*251.93 which is $204.82 EV.

So if you buy that IPlay should push with about top 50% of hands then we should fold, and it isn't close.

Even if it was a:b:c::6:2:2 (I.e., a very weak-tight bb) it would be $192.17 EV fold.