Schneids Post on Taking Shots

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This was posted by Schnieds in the Internet Forum. It's an excellent post with regard to considerations for taking shots at bigger games...

"Yes Bob, I agree that $150,000 is a good bankroll amount for $100/200. However, I think that someone could play in $100/200 and take shots in it with $75,000 or even a little less in their roll.

The last few weeks, I have been playing some $300/600 online and I don't have a $500,000 roll for it (which is what I'd like to have to begin playing it as my "regular" game), but I'm comfortable taking calculated shots in hopes of hitting some big scores to build that roll quicker, since the difference between $50/100 and $100/200 earns and $300/600 earns is phenomenal enough to make the risk worthwhile (while knowing I can afford to risk enough BBs in 300/600 to give these 'shots' a legit shot and in fact make it more than just flipping coins with a 51-49 type edge for thousands at a time).

So yeah. In higher games I think it mainly comes down to having enough to at least let yourself feel comfortable, having losses not take you out of what you'd consider your 'normal' game, and then being able to handle the inherit swings which come along with it.

I'll admit, I lost $14,000 this afternoon playing in 300/600 in like an hour and it still stung a little bit (but I'm guessing the difference between me and the OP is that this loss and a few more like it isn't going to take me out of a $100/200 game, where as the OP likely lost a large hunk of his playing roll in the 75/150 session). I know it's only like 25BBs but that doesn't matter. It's just something to get over with, and the more it happens the less it stings and the more comfortable you get with it.

I really hope this post doesn't rub anyone the wrong way and isn't taken to be read as a BK style gloat post, since I'm really just trying to provide some honest facts. "

[The Truth]

I agree, its a comfort thing.
I usually dont even take shots tell well after 300bb at a new limit, but thats just me. You gotta find what works.

Good cross post.

-blake

[bobbyi]

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the difference between $50/100 and $100/200 earns and $300/600 earns is phenomenal enough to make the risk worthwhile

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This part is very significant. It sounds like he is pretty sure that he can make more money right now playing in the bigger game and is only not there full time because of bankroll. Most people who take shots are not in this situation. Not only do they lack the bankroll for the bigger game, it's not even clear that they would be a winner there and if they were it might only be a small one. This is very different than knowing that you could make phenomenally more money in the bigger game right off the bat.

[ggbman]

I thought it was pretty interesting, i might as well X-post my response:

"I thought i would chime in here. A while ago, i wrote up this post on bankroll management. Since then my feelings have changed a little, but not much. Basically, i think for most players, it's worth the little bit of extra time at their current limit to build a better bankroll for taking their shots.

My first day playing 10-20 i was down 100BB's. I also was able to assess the quality of the games and knew i would be a winner there. This last month i did very well in the 30-60 game, but i went on -80bb slide to start things off. Having the extra bankroll for MOST players will give them a better chance to suceed because they won't tilt as much and the money won't seem like as much to them. The other day I had a -13k or so day, by far my worst day ever. If i had a 50k roll, that would have been pretty brutal emotioanlly.

The exceptions to this in my opinion, are people like schneids, bk, etc... who seem very good at assessing their potential in a game quickly, and who are not afraid to move back down for a bit if things are not going well. They are not going to ever jepordize their potential earn by losing more money than they can afford to in these games. If this is true for you, then you can be more liberal in taking shots IMO."

[arkady]

The whole point of this post is to take risks and not follow convential BB wisdom. I do believe for most of the people on this forum, the advice is not applicable, but for those who are looking beyond 20/40 and thinking of what to do next...the post is worth a read. Yes, it is dangerous, but calculated risks can be very profitable in the long run.

[obsidian]

I see nothing wrong taking shots at limits before you have a "safe" bankroll for that limit. You just need to be willing to go back down if you run bad or feel you aren't ready for that limit.

[Turning Stone Pro]

Interesting post from Scheids. I've "ground out" a roll over the last 1.5 years big enough to sit reasonably comfortably in the PP 1-2 as my main game for a year or two.

However, I realize that my edge in the 1-2, if I play my absolute best at all possible times, is quite small. The $5 rake-back-less rake also contributes to the difficulties. As much as I hate to admit it, I know that I am somewhere between a small favorite, break-even, or small dog in the 1-2.

I have had to realize that I am better off continuing to grind it out at the lower limits. I made my $ that way, and there is no good reason to change at this point. I know I can at least hold my own in higher-limit games, and I will have to live with that knowledge. I just dont want to put my hard-earned bankroll at risk of suffering huge swings.

For sure, if the 1-2 or 50-100 looks overly weak on a given day, I'll jump in. I just don't want to grind it out day after day with those regulars, and risk my roll withering away.

TSP

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought it was pretty interesting, i might as well X-post my response:

"I thought i would chime in here. A while ago, i wrote up this post on bankroll management. Since then my feelings have changed a little, but not much. Basically, i think for most players, it's worth the little bit of extra time at their current limit to build a better bankroll for taking their shots.

My first day playing 10-20 i was down 100BB's. I also was able to assess the quality of the games and knew i would be a winner there. This last month i did very well in the 30-60 game, but i went on -80bb slide to start things off. Having the extra bankroll for MOST players will give them a better chance to suceed because they won't tilt as much and the money won't seem like as much to them. The other day I had a -13k or so day, by far my worst day ever. If i had a 50k roll, that would have been pretty brutal emotioanlly.

The exceptions to this in my opinion, are people like schneids, bk, etc... who seem very good at assessing their potential in a game quickly, and who are not afraid to move back down for a bit if things are not going well. They are not going to ever jepordize their potential earn by losing more money than they can afford to in these games. If this is true for you, then you can be more liberal in taking shots IMO."

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I had a conversation on AIM with James282 about this. He mentioned that he used to take 50 bb shots all the time, and leave 300 back at his normal level, and that's how he eventually moved up.

The reason I mention that is that it is going to be different for everyone. I can't afford to just leave 300 bb's at my normal level and take shots because I need to pay bills, so 300 bets isn't nearly enough. Even if I left myself with much more than that and took a shot, I can't really afford to fail. I have to win just to keep my bankroll constant.

I wish I had started poker much earlier when I was still in my early years of college with no expenses. I have to think that if I were in that situation I would be much more willing to take shots and try to move up. I think trying to build your bankroll through shot taking is a great idea if you don't really need the money.

[ggbman]

Yeah, i agree that it's better to take shots when you have less expenses etc... Of course this doesn't mean just because your role is inflated, you should take shots. (which i know is not what you were suggesting)

The key thing is to indentify the point of diminishing returns for you, and when it becomes not worth it. For Schneids, he thinks he can make significantly more money in the 300-600 game. For many 100-200 players, they would not only make less money at the 300-600 level, they would actually be losers.

It would seem that most of the best players in these forums took shots like this, but it's also important to remember that their sucess can largely be attributed to the fact that they are better players than we are. I don't know if Schneids or James when they were playing 30-60 were significantly better than the best players now, or if they just continued to improve as they moved up. In any event, everyone agree's that people who have the discipline to move down if a shot does not work out should take some from time to time.

Gabe

[TStoneMBD]

my personal opinion on bankroll management is that you should only gamble with money you can afford to lose. i dont like putting certain numbers into play here like 300BB or 500BB or 1000BB because they arent applicable to all situations.

if you want your risk of ruin to be close to 0, then its probably good to keep 700BBs for your current level and take a shot with anything of excess at higher levels. if you lose the excess your risk of ruin is still close to 0. just make sure that when you lose that money that you dont lose your head.