300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!

rigoletto · #1 08-13-2005, 05:33 AM

Ray Zee wrote in a recent thread about big downswings:

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people can speculate about the big downswings all they want. but the times i have seen it in real life it always was from a player that was playing a losing game during that period.
just because you win at a certain rate for a certain amount of time doesnt mean you dont play poorly for a time during that period. also even if you are not playing poorly based on your perception of what is the right way of playing for those conditions, sometimes you are very wrong as the conditions of the game and the players way of addressing your play may be different than you think..

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to 2nd this. I think it is riciculous that 300BB downswings has come to be an accepted part of the game in this forum. I submit that +99.9% of the big downswings reported here are caused by tilt and bad play in general. Just a year ago a 100BB downswing was considered a sure sign of bad play here and posters advised people to examine there game. Now they are just told that it is to be expected...

I think the speed of online games are to blame (reinforced by multitabling). Tilt runs for a certain period of time wether you play 1000 hands or 10,0000 hands in that period and this causes us to see more of these downswings. People in turn recover faster online because of the amount of hands. So because we see more of these downswings with fast recoveries it is now being shrugged of as 'statistically normal' - WRONG. It only teaches us that the number one thing to work on for a multitabling online player is tilt!

So please stop the macho 'big swings are something you have to deal with' attitude and let us deal with the problem instead of dismissing it!

Victor · #2 08-13-2005, 05:54 AM

i agree. i have never had a 300bb downswing in 200k hands. i have had many 100bb downswings and i always realize afterwards that i was playing atrociously. i broke even for 30k hands and felt i was playing well tho. i guess if i would have tilt at that point things could have gone bad.

but still, its hard not to tilt and, i think, statistically, 100-300bb downswings could be somewhat commmon. realize, i know nothing about stats but i routinely fluctuate 50-75bb so it is not that big a stretch.

also realize, i am not that good tho.

bicyclekick · #3 08-13-2005, 05:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ray Zee wrote in a recent thread about big downswings:

[ QUOTE ]
people can speculate about the big downswings all they want. but the times i have seen it in real life it always was from a player that was playing a losing game during that period.
just because you win at a certain rate for a certain amount of time doesnt mean you dont play poorly for a time during that period. also even if you are not playing poorly based on your perception of what is the right way of playing for those conditions, sometimes you are very wrong as the conditions of the game and the players way of addressing your play may be different than you think..

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to 2nd this. I think it is riciculous that 300BB downswings has come to be an accepted part of the game in this forum. I submit that +99.9% of the big downswings reported here are caused by tilt and bad play in general. Just a year ago a 100BB downswing was considered a sure sign of bad play here and posters advised people to examine there game. Now they are just told that it is to be expected...

I think the speed of online games are to blame (reinforced by multitabling). Tilt runs for a certain period of time wether you play 1000 hands or 10,0000 hands in that period and this causes us to see more of these downswings. People in turn recover faster online because of the amount of hands. So because we see more of these downswings with fast recoveries it is now being shrugged of as 'statistically normal' - WRONG. It only teaches us that the number one thing to work on for a multitabling online player is tilt!

So please stop the macho 'big swings are something you have to deal with' attitude and let us deal with the problem instead of dismissing it!

[/ QUOTE ]

Fing yawn. Boring old debate. 300bb swings happen even when you're playing great. Period. End of arguement. next case.

Here we go again though.

The Dude · #4 08-13-2005, 06:01 AM

You do realize that your position is completely contradicted by math, right? Not to mention myself and several others I know who have had at least one 300+ BB downswing while playing easily winning poker, if not our A game.

drbk2 · #5 08-13-2005, 06:10 AM

I personally have never suffered a 300BB downswing before. However, I know and have seen a couple of great players go on 300 BB downswings and GREATER. Now I think a part of your post is valid that we all play less than our best poker when we are losing. But for everyone who posts on here, less than A game poker is still very far away from losing poker in my opinion.

rigoletto · #6 08-13-2005, 06:31 AM

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You do realize that your position is completely contradicted by math, right?

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This is just plain wrong! The math dictates that a fraction of winning players will experience such downswings, not that it is to be expected!

PokerPrince · #7 08-13-2005, 06:34 AM

What he said.

rigoletto · #8 08-13-2005, 06:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Fing yawn. Boring old debate. 300bb swings happen even when you're playing great. Period. End of arguement. next case.

Here we go again though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it can happen, but we are now refering to them as being normal and that every great player should expect it to happen. It seems to me that the many big egos in this forum prefer this rather than facing the reality that they might not be as good as they think!

bicyclekick · #9 08-13-2005, 06:37 AM

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This is just plain wrong! The math dictates that a fraction of winning players will experience such downswings, not that it is to be expected!

[/ QUOTE ]

Show me the math. I'm serious.

I've personally only had 2 250's and no 300's but I've probably only played 400-500k hands.

psyduck · #10 08-13-2005, 06:38 AM

Why doesn't someone publish some sort of equation that we can use. I.E. if you have a winrate of A, the probability of losing B bb in C hands is X. (e.g. winrate of 2.0BB/100, then you have a 5% probability of losing 300 BB in 10,000 hands or something)

This would be pretty useful I think