Running It Twice

[moomoocow]

OK - let's do this for a really simple example -

You hold KK
Your mortal enemy holds QQ

The flop and turn come
[ K Q Q ] [5]

you're both all in on the turn - flip your cards and decide to run it twice.

Your EV =
P (1st run is a king) * P(2nd card is anything else) * 1/2pot +
P (1st run is not a king) * P(2nd card is a king) * 1/2Pot +
P(1st card not a king)*P(2nd card not a king) *0

= 1/44 * 1 * 1/2p + 43/44 * 1/43 * 1/2p
= 1/44p

where p is pot sized.

Just as the dealer is about the do the first run. You yell "Stop - we're jsut going to run it once because the eV is different."

Your opponent sighs and says no - the EV from running it once is :

EV = p(river is king) * Pot + p(river not king)*0
= 1/44p

You sheepishly sit down and the dealer proceeds to run it twice - bringing a 4 and a 7. Berating your bad beat, you realize EV is such a silly concept - anyone who cares about "expected" value over and above "realized" value should be worried about paying their "realized" nut - not their "expected" nut [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[MikeL05]

Interestingly, I had an epiphane (sp?) on the bus ride home. So while hitting two diamonds on the first run does slightly reduce the chances of hitting the outs on the second run, I failed to figure in the fact that hitting exactly one out in the first run actually INCREASES the chances of winning on the second run to slightly slightly above that of a single run.

I appreciate all of the sarcastic and/or caustic replies though. I'm not really sure what the point of those was. Do you want to prove how smart you are here? I thought this board was for asking questions and receiving some help or some interesting theory. Stick to that and maybe we'll all get a bit more accomplished here.

Thanks to all of the helpful responses, sorry to clutter the thread with my incorrect hunch.

[mmmmmbrother]

i dont think you understand that when you agree to run it twice, you dont know the outcome for the first run, so the odds are the same.

the way your thinking about it is if you make the decision after t he first run. when you see the first two diamons come up, then it does reduce the chances of winning again, but you didnt know that.

[TomCollins]

Maybe when you take the bus to the 10th grade, you can learn about probability and math and stop relying on intuition.

[jason1990]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought this board was for asking questions and receiving some help or some interesting theory.

[/ QUOTE ]
Believe it or not, I was actually trying to help you. But I guess that was a waste of time, since you don't appear to actually be reading this thread. You're just riding the bus and enjoying the thread in your head. I'm all for epiphanies and it's great that you had one, but if you would just once read this thread carefully, you would see that it's completely irrelevant.

[MikeL05]

And maybe when you take the bus to 5th grade, you can learn about maturity, and stop relying on an online forum to boost your ego and defy your self-esteem issues.

I didn't understand something, and I tried to work it out verbally with some help here. Sorry I'm rusty at math, and I'm sorry you failed to explain it to me in a way that I could immediately understand.

Jason, I wasn't referring to you. Were you being a jerk in your post? I didn't think so. I appreciate the help, what you were saying just wasn't "clicking" with me. Just because I don't get it, doesn't mean I'm not reading and not trying.

[TomCollins]

It seems you'd rather learn by intuition than theory. You aren't going to get much of that at 2+2. If you tried to say what part confused you, we all can explain more parts in more detail.

Was it the addition part or the division that confused you?