LIMIT ROI SIMULATOR - with Poker Tracker support now

[rvg72]

Here is the second version of this app and for those that asked, this is completely free.

Version 1 Thread
My ROI Simulator for SNG's

So a few months ago I created an ROI simulator for SNG's and now I have done the same thing for Limit using a similar technique that provides much more insite than simply looking at BB/100 and Standard Deviation to try and determine probabilities (although they play a key part in the simulation itself)



So, an explanation. On the left of the screen you see a historical percentage breakdown for each win amount and loss amount (and break even amount) for a hand. This will be different for each person based on playing style. By default I have entered data from an imaginary 1.14BB/100 player but feel free to edit these numbers. As you edit the numbers the "Actual BB/100" number will change. You can also load your real numbers directly from Poker Tracker (instructions below).

In the middle of the screen there are some instructions and a button saying "Get from PT". Click on this button if you have Poker Tracker and the following Window will appear:



Select your database and your screen name(s) and then click GetData to see your real breakdown of win/loss sizes in big bets.

On the right side you see you can enter in the number of hands to simulate and the number of simulations. If you want to see the likelihood of certain results over a 100,000 hand stretch then enter 100,000 for hands. The number of simulations is the number of times the app will run through the simulation. 1000 hands and 1000 simulations takes a fraction of a second - don't go crazy here right off the bat and enter 5,000,000 hands and 1000 simulations because it will take a long time depending on the speed of your computer.

Once it had simulated the results it display your total profit in big bets from each simulation sorted highest to lowest and your biggest drop in big bets from largest to lowest.

So, looking at the above screenshot, out of 1000 simulations the best result this guy had over 1000 hands was +227.5 big bets. You can't see this from the screen shots but going down the list you would see 594 of the 1000 made a profit so this player has a 59.4% chance to profit over 1000 hands.

As far as the largest drop, to see the expected largest drop then go to the middle amount. In this case, with 1000 sims, the middle amount is 500 and you can see the largest drop was 59 units so that is what this guy should expect his typical biggest drop to be over 1000 hands. The worst drop in this example was 198.5 units but you can't see that from the screen shot.

You can use these numbers to draw various conclusions. For example, if you want to see the liklihood of this player dropping 100 units over 1000 hands it would be 12.8% since 128 of 1000 simulations had a largest drop of 100 or more units.

General disclaimers apply and if you are worried that this software sends me your hole cards then block it in your firewall - it will never contact anybody about anything but for your own piece of mind there are steps you can take. For those of you very familiar with C#.NET you can disassemble it into IL and check it yourself.

It does require the .NET Framework 1.1 which can be downloaded here if you don't have it:

.NET Framework 1.1 Download

You can download the LIMIT ROI SIMULATOR FROM HERE:

ROI SIMULATOR DOWNLOAD

It is free with no strings attached. If you like it or use it to answer people when they say "I'm a 1.5BB/100 player so what is the likilihood that I would drop 300 big bets over the next 5000 hands?" then feel feel to post the link back to this thread. If you have any suggestions for new features that might be helpful then let me know.

rvg

[rvg72]

Wow! No comments! Any questions? Any problems getting it to work or understanding the point of it?

I tried running the report against a large (400K) 5/10 6 max database and in case you want to compare your breakdown to the average of this DB it is:

BB
15+ win 0.02%
10-15 win 0.17%
8-10 win 0.33%
6-8 win 0.95%
5-6 win 1.06%
4-5 win 1.77%
3-4 win 2.46%
2-3 win 3.12%
1-2 win 3.92%
<1 win 6.05%

0 37.15%

<1 loss 29.07%
1-2 loss 5.48%
2-3 loss 3.88%
3-4 loss 2.74%
4-5 loss 1.20%
5-6 loss 0.40%
6-8 loss 0.20%
8-10 loss 0.03%
10+ loss < 0.01 %

rvg

[Alex/Mugaaz]

This looks like a cool program, and on top of that it looks well done, but us limit people don't think in terms of ROI so that's why there are no responses. I'll check this out when I get home tonight and post what I think later.

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like a cool program, and on top of that it looks well done, but us limit people don't think in terms of ROI so that's why there are no responses. I'll check this out when I get home tonight and post what I think later.

[/ QUOTE ]

ahhhh...good point... that's why I'm not in marketing... Let me know what you think of it.

rvg

[Entity]

Any chances of being able to do this at any point with PT SQL DBs?

Seems like a cool app.

Rob

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
Any chances of being able to do this at any point with PT SQL DBs?

Seems like a cool app.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you know if the database structure is the same? If it is then all I'd need to do is change the connection string from

Provider=Microsoft.Jet.OLEDB.4.0;Data Source=<location of file>

to whatever connection string the SQL DB uses and I guess it should work but not really sure since I don't have the SQL version of PT... If anybody knows then I'd give it a shot.

The other option is I could just modify the query that would extract the data from the DB that you could use and then copy the results into the form but that isn't as cool...

rvg