Common Situation Lately - Best Line?

[DonT77]

This situation has happened to me 3-4 times in the last few days and even this morning I'm still not sure what the best line is.

Situation-
$20-$100 MTT. I have around 1500 chips. With blinds at 25/50 I'm in EP with AK and make it 150 to go. MP (no reads) with 1500 chips calls. Two to the flop.

Flop comes something like A94r. I bet 2/3P (~250) and MP min-raises me (to ~500). What is my line?

[Dave D]

I think you don't quite give us enough info as to buy in, there's a difference between a 20+2 and a 100 buy in. You don't give us site either, that's somewhat important, but whatever.

I voted other because there's no push option. WHY? This is the most obvious choice for me. This is a really easy push, and I think anything other than that is really weak tight. Let's evaluate our options:

1. Fold- This is awful to me. You're telling me you're folding TPTK heads up? I just don't think you can ever have this kind of a read in an online tourney. If he got lucky and hit two pair that's just bad luck, but you still have outs. Party donks love minraising, doesn't mean they always have the best hand. He could just be doing it to see wher ehe is.

2. Call- I guess you could call here, but I think it's dangerous. You're pretty much committed by calling as you're putting in a little over 1/3 your chips in. Not terrible, but I just don't see a reason to let villian draw. AK isn't bulletproof, I wouldn't even instacall here with top two. A set sure. I like pushing better just because even if he folds you increase your stack by 1/3 while also giving him a chance to make a mistake.


I really don't see any way you can raise less than all in and not commit yourself to an all in at some point anyway. Might as well get all your chips in with the best hand.

[Rduke55]

Dave,
I like the call with either a checkraise or a lead because that way we can get more chips from AQ, AJ. Pushing may run them out.

[VinnyTheFish]

I have to come over the top for another 600, expecting to call his all-in if he pushes.

I cannot tell you how many times I have dropped by a set or the guy playing 94s in this same exact situation, but I will still do it every time - <font color="blue"> but in all serious </font> - think about your fold equity? You are +EV and you are a definately heavy favorite vs. any 2 random cards. -- sorry, I am not a wiz with the exact numbers.

[ghostwriter]

[ QUOTE ]
Dave,
I like the call with either a checkraise or a lead because that way we can get more chips from AQ, AJ. Pushing may run them out.

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I don't think AQ, AJ folds to a push here.

[Dave D]

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[ QUOTE ]
Dave,
I like the call with either a checkraise or a lead because that way we can get more chips from AQ, AJ. Pushing may run them out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think AQ, AJ folds to a push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. And I don't want worse hands drawing.

[Rduke55]

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dave,
I like the call with either a checkraise or a lead because that way we can get more chips from AQ, AJ. Pushing may run them out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think AQ, AJ folds to a push here.

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I agree. And I don't want worse hands drawing.

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But they're most likely drawing to 3 outs. give them a chance to put more money in there.

[DonT77]

This happened twice in two different PS 73+7 WPT Satellites, and it also happened in a PP 30+3 &amp; a FullTilt 24+2.

I'm looking for a general line or approach - or maybe a list of considerations or things to take into account. Obviously each situation is going to be slightly different (buy-in, site, stack sizes, flop, positions, reads, etc.)

In a way this hand is similar to the Masters #2 hand - in that one question we need to resolve is 'how do I handle the min-raise?' - although my hand is not as strong as top 2 pair (as in Gigabet's M2 hand) and in this case I am out of position.

[rockythecat99]

Given the stack sizes this is either a fold or a raise. Flat calling this just sucks unless you can get away from this hand on a blank turn card which you won't. If you have a great read that this guy has AQ or AJ flat call. If you don't raising him is the only option for a cheap showdown. STack sizes suck here as you cant do anything without getting yourself pot committed.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
This happened twice in two different PS 73+7 WPT Satellites, and it also happened in a PP 30+3 &amp; a FullTilt 24+2.

I'm looking for a general line or approach - or maybe a list of considerations or things to take into account. Obviously each situation is going to be slightly different (buy-in, site, stack sizes, flop, positions, reads, etc.)

In a way this hand is similar to the Masters #2 hand - in that one question we need to resolve is 'how do I handle the min-raise?' - although my hand is not as strong as top 2 pair (as in Gigabet's M2 hand) and in this case I am out of position.

[/ QUOTE ]

One reason I'm really confident that a push is the right play here is that in the 30+3 and probably the 24+2 it will very very often get called, by worse hands. Even if he folds, you still get an extra 650 chips, or a little more than 1/3 of your previous stack. To me, that's a fine extraction. I think a push is the only real way to make sure he pays the most wrong price, while trying to bet the turn might not even get you action.

Don't know about the quality of play in the 70 buy in.