alright, you want a lousy post? just read this one.

[switters]

Calling the turn is quite OK. You are getting 7.25-1 on your 6 outer and you KNOW you'll pick up 2 more BBs minimum on the river if you hit. All your outs should be clean as neither of these two appear to be on a flush draw

I'm not so sure about this -- I think the combination of reads on the UTG and the MP make this a good laydown.

The MPs actions before, on, and after the flop strongly indicate that you are behind on the turn. he is either holding 77, an overpair to your 88, or a big ace that has now paired -- if there were any chance that you could isolate him, it would be a good call, since you do indeed have 6 clean outs against him (unless he has AA - call it 5.75 clean outs...).

BUT, the UTG is, as you said, the "sucker", which informs you that his call preflop means he has two cards that look pretty together (any suited connectors, any pair, any ace...) and his agression post-flop is likely to be any of a wide range of hands that muck up your outs (he could have A6, 67s, 56s, 66 to make an 8 dead, he could have A[img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] to have picked up the diamond draw and make 6[img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] and 8[img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] dead)

the point is, the only out you can truly feel confident about on the end is a non-[img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 6 -- it got there this time, but that's not a reason to chase. Turns out you actually had four outs this time, which is about how many you will usually have in this situation, and you won't be sure you've won on half of those outs even if they hit! -- it's a good fold, unless the UTG is truly the kind of maniac who will keep pumping it up without the sort of draws i mentioned..

good luck!

-switters

[elysium]

hi everyone
thanks for the responses. having a terrible week and believe it or not, when i'm winning, i make that call. but this past week has been brutal, and it's very true that loses seem to feed one on the other; kinda like a snowball effect. i counted 3 pots that, when winning, i would have been in there and taken them down. but, i am getting called down a lot and i've been this weeks target so i'm folding early and coming in more strongly. however, sometimes that adds to the losses. i am glad that net warrior took me off the 88 cold-calls until i get over this.