interesting read

[Dr. StrangeloveX]

oil stuff

[evil_twin]

I was left feeling pretty stunned after reading that, and felt it deserved a bump.

Just scare mongering. People have been predicting since the dawn of time that we're going to run out of one resource or another. At one point we were all going to starve by 1900.

There are more ways to meet energy requirements than just oil. There are 60 years of gas supplies, 200 years of coal, over 1000 years of uranium (and probably far more). All of these can easily supply our energy needs for the next century, especially if we start converting transportation into gas or electricity powered (which the market will do as oil goes up in price).

There may well be a recession caused by oil, but we're not going back to dark ages any time soon.

[Dr. StrangeloveX]

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Just scare mongering. People have been predicting since the dawn of time that we're going to run out of one resource or another. At one point we were all going to starve by 1900.

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I presume you don't mean to say that oil won't run out.

The thing about this that most alarms me is the prospect of demand continuing to increase while supply decreases each and every year, destroying the banking system, and diminishing our prospects of being capable of making the kind of capital investments that will be necessary to make the transition to whatever our next energy source will be.

I agree that there is an impending oil crisis, I don't agree there is an energy crisis. Do you see the difference? In terms of energy, we have at least several hundred years of power that can be generated in power plants, from the gas, coal and uranium reserves mentioned above.

The underlying assumption of his doomsday analysis is that oil is the only source of energy to power machinery, factories, transportation, and to heat homes. He then goes on to state that because we rely on this stuff so much, we're [censored] screwed once the oil runs out!!!11!. This simply isn't true. At present it's by far the dominant energy source for these purposes, but the transition to gas, hydrogen (as in fuel cells for transportation) or electrical power is doable and will be market driven once the price of oil goes high enough.

Overall it's a very poorly done analysis that assumes nothing will be done in the next 20 years to convert to these other (plentiful) energy sources. This is ludicrous. Even a partial conversion will have a huge impact on prolonging the life of oil.

Don't get me wrong, this is a very serious issue, and much action needs to be taken. But industrial countries aren't going to go back to the stone age. At worst, they may suffer a bad recession for a period of time as the cost of converting to other forms of energy for tranportation (which I would estimate as a few trillion at least) is absorbed by the economy.

[evil_twin]

Whilst I agree with your counter that there are of other energy sources available, you have not addressed the issue that virtually everything in our lives is derived from some petrolium based product.

That chair you're sitting on? That monitor your looking at? Your cooker, your kettle, anything plastic, pretty much most man made materials including clothes, containers, remote controls, speakers, cups, etc. Look at the things around you now and realise how much of it depends on oil, and I don't mean just as a fuel.

Combine that with the fact that there are countries with many millions of people in them desperately trying to match the economic success we in the west have had and it's not hard to see there is an impending crisis IMO. Of course, that doesn't mean there aren't solutions, but realise that the oil crisis isn't just about energy to our cars and down wires into our homes.

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but realise that the oil crisis isn't just about energy to our cars and down wires into our homes.

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Actually, it is. Almost all oil is used for transportation and as a fuel in manufacturing, agriculture, and mining. 4% of total oil usage is for plastics. 1% is for fertilizer and pesticide production. We have enough to produce ample of these for hundreds of years. And oil production is not going to stop in 50 years, it will simply be so slowed down that it can't provide for today's fuel needs. There will still be plenty for the production of plastics and fertilizers for a long time to come.

Plastic from Wikipedia. Check out Price and the Future for discussions of very likely plastic alternatives

Also, Alternatives to oil from wikipedia makes for some interesting reading.

Also read about the Fast breeder reactor. With current technology, we can supply all of our energy needs for the next 10,000 years (at least), cheaply, in complete safely and with very little pollution.

I agree there may be a crisis of sorts, the price of many goods will go up, and the economy may well slip into a bad recession for a period of time. But we're definitely not going back to the stone ages, or even the 1950s.

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That chair you're sitting on? ... Your cooker, your kettle,

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OMG what we will do when we can't afford cheap plastic chairs and cookers???? Is there any alternative sitting or cooking pot sources???? Mankind has relied on cheap plastic chairs for thousands of years! We're doooooooooomed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TorpedoBreath]

Don't panic!

[purnell]

There were similar dire predictions during the oil shock of the 1970's. We were supposed to run out of oil by 1985. Oil will be replaced as our primary energy source when the "invisible hand" of economics forces the price high enough that alternatives are viable. IMO we will have to go nuclear world-wide, at least for a while. This is not a great state of affairs, but at this point we (the human race) will be decimated without an economically viable energy source.

There are some who believe that there are way too many of us, and that our decimation is inevitable.