I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats

hello. i have played 200nl for like 18 days now and well.. not happy with the results. i just want to know if my graph looks normal? im sure it doesnt. i am gettinf frustrated. i cant seem to get a good streak going. its just continuous ups and downs. always breaking even.. is this just variance? it cant be.. i mean the graph is like a danm stalemate. well anyway these are my stats.

hands: 12,190
vp$ip = 23.56%
won money at showdown: 49.56% (problem here??)
PF raise: 10.25%
BB/100: .5bb/100
Agression factor: 2.4


heres my graph.




so guys please give me any advice you can. dont just say "just variance". someone i know showed me a graph of over 25k hands of 10bb/100 with a graph that looks so damn beautiful!!stressless!!. so advice away. critique away. anything else ya need to know just ask. i dont even no if anything can be said but.. just looking for some encouraging but honest words.

[crosse91]

at least you're not losing.......

Maybe you need to try dropping down a level? You may just currently be outclassed.

[Python49]

uh, he's obviously trying to move up and beat a new game... and looking for suggestions

[savman]

i think i read u 6 table? if this is true, first suggestion is drop down to three tables or four. if all u are doing is waiting to make hands against these guys they will notice. yea, you will still stack the megadonks but the most exploitable player in 200NL are the so called lags that fill its ranks. lot of the guys i have been playing have vpip of 50-60+ and pf raise 20+. this is very exploitable. u should be in there mixing it up with these guys taking pots away from them. sure u wont take them all away, but when they sense u are playing back at them they will give u unlimited action with any peice of the board vs. ur monster. conversely there are some rocks. hard to make money off them, exercise some game selection. i am three-four tabling it currently and the games are great. just lessen the number of tables and get a feel for what type of opponent u are playing. g2g to bed but just some suggestions.

[ QUOTE ]
uh, he's obviously trying to move up and beat a new game... and looking for suggestions

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm going to be as polite as possible in this post.

He is not succeeding, and posting a graph of his swings and his PVIP/PFR/etc. isn't going to give him the help he needs. Given the information in this thread, it would appear he is outclassed at the $200 level, or is suffering from some long term variance and needs to either A: Post hand histories for critique, or B: Move back down and improve his style of play again.

[Malachii]

Yes, your game probably has holes. On the other hand, I've had a breakeven stretch for 10k hands, it could just be a bad run of cards. Postflop play is usually the problem in NL.

[ QUOTE ]
i think i read u 6 table? if this is true, first suggestion is drop down to three tables or four. if all u are doing is waiting to make hands against these guys they will notice. yea, you will still stack the megadonks but the most exploitable player in 200NL are the so called lags that fill its ranks. lot of the guys i have been playing have vpip of 50-60+ and pf raise 20+. this is very exploitable. u should be in there mixing it up with these guys taking pots away from them. sure u wont take them all away, but when they sense u are playing back at them they will give u unlimited action with any peice of the board vs. ur monster. conversely there are some rocks. hard to make money off them, exercise some game selection. i am three-four tabling it currently and the games are great. just lessen the number of tables and get a feel for what type of opponent u are playing. g2g to bed but just some suggestions.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dropped down to 3 tables after my huge slide and then started 4 tabling. as of now i 4 table. and i do mix it up. my stats are not extremely tight stats i dont think.

[Rotterdaum]

Keep trying to improve your game. Don't get into thinking that you're doing everything right and just get unlucky. However, do keep in mind that it's very possible that you are in fact doing things well enough to be a winning player and that this is a tough losing streak. Bad runs of over 30k hands happen.

If I had to make a comment about your stats, I'd say that your PFR % may be too high. You could be getting into too many big pots with too many low quality hands. It is said that VP$IP and PFR % should increase cooperatively, so perhaps to use PFR of 10%+ well, your VP$IP should be closer to 30. Otherwise, your opponents may (correctly) interpret you as overaggressive preflop and take advantage of that.

[Ghazban]

12K hands is meaningless for winrate concerns (figure out the 95% confidence interval of your winrate after this many hands and you'll see why). You will not get any meaningful replies about your other stats, either. I have seen people with roughly your stats who are terrible; I have seen others who are pretty good.

If you really want to work on your game, single table, read hands for every player involved in every hand, and vocalize why you are doing everything you do (eg. "I'm raising because ______ led weak and folded to a raise a couple orbits ago so I can probably take this away here. If I don't, I can take it away on the turn if it is a _____ or a _____ but should give up if its a _____")