4 handed, big stack playing properly, dealt AK

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
folding this is playing for 3rd. dont do that. i cant believe im reading this many arguments for folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Run an ICM. It is a big mistake to call here, and there is just no way around it. Even if you win this pot, the guy will still have an ass load of chips. It would be one thing if you could take the chip lead and do some damage, but here he can still push into you and there is nothing you can do since you will be right back to the drawing board (only able to call with JJ+ or whatever).

Brad

[fisherman112]

you finish this with about 2500 chips if you win and he has around 3600.

you forgot to mention that you will then have more than 2x as many chips as 3rd place and almost 5x as many as the other player. what are you calling pushes with 4 handed if not AK?
who cares if the big stack "bullies" you at that point, you have enough chips to wait for a huge hand and let him throw his money away with another reckless all in or knock someone else out, leaving you 1 double up away from the chip lead.

[Gusti]

youre calling pushes with QQ+. But since we wont be able to convince you why dont you run an ICM and check it yourself?

[fisherman112]

because obviously these programs can take into account the action in all hands you play after you win this one.

if you're a good player who can play his larger stack well after he doubles up, you have to call.

please dont make me reduce this to just bragging about my own stats as proof. ICMs are not always right. it's a call.

[Shillx]

Busting out is WAY worse then doubling up (is good) here. Doubling up doesn't do much for you in this spot. According to your logic, you should play any hand that is better then a 50/50 shot against him since you will double up more then you will bust.

If I'm in the BB, I'm stoaked that the hero called with AKo. One third of the time, I make the money right there! Even if the hero wins, I will still make the money some of the time. If the BB gains on us calling, someone has to lose. One of the losers is us.

Brad

[fisherman112]

AK isnt even close to 50/50 against the hand range of the pfr. that's a complete misrepresentation of my point. if you're folding AK, JJ and TT here, you are playing way too tightly and maybe, just maybe, that's the reason you cant even beat the 33s.

[vinyard]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold (by ICM) and a pretty clear one at that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. I wasn't being entirely honest when I posted as I knew it was a fold before I decided to call and did so anyways. When he flipped I was desperately hopeing that he was on a three outer of some sort - the J5 was unfortunate.

I think QQ+ is the range here and I have now resolved to dump AK from similar calls in the future. FWIW, I think JJ is a better hand here than AK but still a bad call. Actually if you run it with Gusti pushing any two, AK, either suited or not, still doesn't make the list but 99+ does.

Somethimes when your ROI for a day is -.5% its a good thing.
I learned that one of my preconceived notions about calling all-ins with AK sucks.

[Costanza]

I still think this is an interesting problem.

Even if you put villian on any 2 cards, this is a clear fold. In fact, you should fold even if he were to turn over 32o:


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=295354
pokenum -h ac kd - 3s 2h
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kd 1116001 65.18 587030 34.28 9273 0.54 0.654
3s 2h 587030 34.28 1116001 65.18 9273 0.54 0.346


So you'll win 65% and lose 34% of the times you make this call.

If you fold: remaining stacks (assuming BB folds as well): 1290, 5095, 1030, 585. ICM puts your $EV at 0.211

If you call, you'll win 65% on the time. The stacks will change to 1290, 3665, 2460, 585 which gives you an $EV of 0.308. You'll lose 35% of the time which obviously makes your $EV 0. On average, calling will leave you with an $EV of (0.65*0.308) = 0.200 which means according to ICM, you should fold.

So -- what should you call with? In order for the call to be correct you need to win 0.211/0.308 = 68.5% of the time. If you really think he's pushing random cards, you need 99+ to make this call.

This is all still very counterintuitive to me. But this just illustrates a situation where the Gap is at it widest. And also shows why a big stack on the bubble is so valuable in the right hands.


Edit: wow... it took me a lot longer to work through that than I thought it did... there were only 4 responses when I started...

[Shillx]

I'm certainly not folding JJ here unless he was really tight. I would fold TT here if he pushed too tight (say 22+/A2+/K2+) since I'm only 2:1 to win.

Brad

[curtains]

Pretty clear fold here. Also because shortstack is the BB, frankieyales range will not be nearly as loose as usual.