#11
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Re: Raised on the river.. again
80/160 is way beyond me.
#1. I don't like your hand, but I'd call. I don't really get how the river helped this guy to a worse hand other than trip aces, and of the 3-bettable preflop trip aces, AQ is one that would slow play the flop, and then might have second thoughts on the turn after being repopped, so it seems you're pretty much hoping he got excited with AK, you holding a K and J doesn't help your cause much when you consider his possible hands. #2. I like your hand, but I'd just call. #3. I'd call. Again, it is hard to see how the J helped him other than with a flush, but all you've said about your hand is that they need a big ace, and you might not always tell the truth, and two have been along for the ride. There's this nagging sense that top pair + nut flush draw should have raised me on the turn, and that top pair should have raised me on the flop, but can it really be two pair-- at this point my tummy begins to hurt, so I call. I feel like I'm betting that he hit a 9 outer instead of a second best 3-outer. |
#12
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good analysis N/M
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#13
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Re: Raised on the river.. again
I would just call in all 3 and I don't think any are very close.
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#14
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Re: Raised on the river.. again
Hand 1: Call.
Hand 2: Fold. I think it's obvious that you're betting the flush. With your hand in this situation, I'd either check-call or bet-fold the river. Hand 3: Re-raise. If the guy's tight, then what could he be holding that beats you? A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], QQ, and AA would all have three-bet you preflop. I'd assume two pair and pop it again. |
#15
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Re: Raised on the river.. again
I would not reraise hand 3. Even though it's hard to put your oppenent on a big hand, if he is a tough player, it should occur to him that since you raised UTG you very well might be holding AA, QQ, 88. You showed strength throughout the hand, and he still raised the river. I would just call, and not feel that good about it.
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#16
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Re: Raised on the river.. again
Hand 1: I call and I think this is relatively straightforward. Folding has got to be wrong, and reraising seems stupid.
Hand 2: I fold this preflop, and I reraise the river. I just don't think its that "obvious" you have a flush, so trips are extremely likely to raise you here. Hand 3: I'd reraise, and its probabaly not as close as I think it is. You can almost certainly fold to a 4 bet (though I'm not a big fan of that line). The thing is that all you've done is bet the whole time. This can cause all sorts of two pair hands to overplay the river since they haven't seen you show any real strength postflop other than by betting (big whoop). |
#17
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Re: Raised on the river.. again
#1 call w/straight.
#2 raise w/flush. #3 - The backdoor flush or gut shots don't seem to fit. Would he have cold called 2 bets w/K-10s or 10-9s to possibly play HU? He would have raised AKs or QQ by now. Does he pay this far w/JJ to board with AQ and UTG raiser? The only thing I can see is AJ. I re-raise. What am I missing? |
#18
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Re: Raised on the river.. again
Hand 3: I'd raise expecting to see AJ of clubs. (or other 2 pair). So far the hand has only consisted of betting and calling. He would raise pre-flop, or on the flop, with AK of spades. He would raise with 2 pair on the flop. I can see him calling the whole way with JJ.
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#19
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Re: Raised on the river.. again
River raises very tough to play
All these hand require that you know your opponents very well!!!! They are all very close Hand 1. With Straight You have the 5th nut hand. I would call. Hand 2. I would simply call this hand as well. Anytime you have broad that reads x x+1 x+2 (flop such as Q J T or 8 7 6), you are very likely to be running to two pairs/full house Of course QJ, QT, JT are likely. you have your 5th nut again. simply call. Call only Hand 3 he could have flush (with KQ of spade may be) straight (KT but very unlikedy) higher trips (AA, QQ, JJ) or two pair (most likely) Re-raise. He has AJ or AQ. |
#20
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Results
I ultimately just called in all 3 hands, but in all 3 hands I pretty strongly considered 3-betting.
I momentarily thought the reraise was attractive in Hand 1 because I didn't feel like he played his hand like a set. I quickly decided against it because AK is probably the only hand I can get a call from that I beat, and I'm paying off if I get 4-bet by a guy I've only played a couple hours (and no other hands) with, even if he has was from Illinois and wearing a black top hat with a bushy black beard. He showed AQ. I thought the longest about Hand 2, because this one looks pretty favorable. A flush seems pretty unlikely for him, given the JTd on board, and his failure to raise my turn bet. It looks like AQ (maybe KQs) is a strong possibility, but since my hand is easy to read if I 3-bet I may not get paid off by these hands, and certainly face a reraise from a full house that I probably have to pay off, because (again) it's a guy I've only played a couple hours with. Also, I didn't think a set was that unlikely here despite his failure to reraise the flop, as he might have been waiting for a safe turn card to bet or check raise on (a play I don't like here because the raiser could easily be screwing around with a draw and check the turn if checked to, but that doesn't mean he couldn't try it). He showed JJ. Hand 3 I almost reraised, but the fact that T9s has a legitimate play here after picking up a double gutter on the turn (even if an unlikely preflop play, but I've learned not to let that sway me, particularly in river 3-bet decisions), and that a suited ace is a pretty common cold calling hand ultimately swayed me against it. I might get paid off by AJs or a QJs, but I'm probably facing 4 bets if I'm beat, and once again I'm not willing to fold against a guy I don't know that well. He showed ATs (spades) for the nuts. |
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