Was I Destined to Go Broke?

[rgschackelford]

Howdy all,

I recently got my friend into playing tournaments, and last night (about 4:30 AM) we played in a small buy-in online tournament. He was controlling the computer, and was starting to get used to the slider. In case you haven't assumed yet, this was NL hold 'em. We start with 1500 in chips.

About 15 minutes in, his stack was down to about 1400, and was on the button, with TADA! AKs. My mouth was watering. The player in second position with a stack of just under 600 pushes all in, and is called by the player in 4th position. There wasn't enough time to go through the verbalization of what to do, so I told him to just call, with the intent of playing big if you flop an ace or king. He calls, and the pot contains approx 1700.

Flop: A-J-x, rainbow

Monster flop. I decided that since he was new he shouldn't try any fancy shmancy trapping play, and just bet out. Since any reasonable bet would pot commit him, I said just shove in, and let the good Lord (and the poker gods) decide the outcome. He pushes all in, and the guy in 4th position calls. He flips over pocket jacks for a set, while the all-in player flips over 77 for a near hopless running 7-7 to stay alive (Also, a backdoor straight draw may have been there for him, depending on what x was. I didn't happen to see the card.)

Turn and River: A-y

He busts out early. Here's why I think most (if not all) players would bust out here:

1) The initial all-in was from someone desperate or presumably on tilt, and probably had a marginal holding, like a low pair or Ax, and the call was going off the same reasoning, so AA or KK is not as likely as it might be (besides he has one of the aces and one of the kings in his hand), so AK is probably getting favorable odds preflop.

2) It is almost impossible to read someone for a set (especially when the pot is as massive as it was, and conclude with enough accuracy that you should fold top pair with top kicker).

3) If we had trapped, and he bet small so not to knock us out, or checked to let us catch up, the turn card, giving us trips, would have said that we go all the way with this.

The only way out is reading one of the two for AA or KK (and we'd even be getting pot odds against KK) preflop, and getting out of the way.

Let me know what you all think about this one.

Rusty G.