Party Mini Steps Viable alternative to the regular grind?

hey guys,

For the last couple of months i've started to play sng's as my game of choice, i currently 8-table the $16 turbo's on Stars, havent played more than a few hundred but things are going well so far

Anyway, i had a couple of MiniStep2 freeroll's sitting in Party back from the days when i first started as a fish (note: i still could be a fish, lol, but i dont think so thanks to the help from many posters here)

So i played with these and worked my way up to MiniStep5 with a few ups and downs along the way..for what its worth i played the MiniStep5 a few hours ago and came 5th for $200

The thing is i often find it hard to open up set after set of regular sng's, it can be very monotonous after a while, and playing these steps has a thrill about it that regular sng's dont...like reaching MiniStep5 gave me the same buzz of nervousness/excitement as you would get reaching a final table of a big mtt imo...

I am resonably sure they are profitable, but i am just wondering if they are worth it terms of how much effort and time you have to put in, in order to make $$...

I am really not sure about these stats (just pure estimates), i did a search but couldnt find anything, so please tell me if you think they are wrong in any way...

Lets say you buyin directly at MiniStep2 (step 1 is a complete waste of time imo):

Say it takes you 10 buyins at MiniStep2 before you reach a MiniStep5...i believe this is rather conservative but its just an estimate

So you spend $220 to get to MiniStep5

Say you arent as good as the average person that plays these (alot of 'regulars' buyin directly) so a finish distribution for a below average player might look something like this:

1st/$2000:8%
2nd/$1000:8%
3rd/$500:8%
4th/$300:8%
5th/$200:8%
6-th/$0:60%

so according to this distribution for each time you reach MiniStep5 you will get $320 for a $100 profit, so thats a 45%ROI,so they are profitable if you achieve these stats, but...how many Step sng's will you play along the way to get to MiniStep5?

If it takes say...40 (i dont where i got this number from but it seems like it would be enough??, then that is a $2.5 proft per SNG played...which is as good as a 15.6%ROI at the $16's, with the added benefit of alot more fun IMO

If anyone has any opinions, experiences or thoughts about the MiniStep5's that they would like to add please share!

Stevo

[raptor517]

i think they suck unless u buy into mini step 5 and play in a way that allows 13-14% first. holla

[KingMedicine]

im a 22 and 33 10-tabling grinder and thought of playing almost exclusively mini steps for a while to see what sort of earn rate i would make. i did this primarily in response to adanthar's posts about mini-steps.

i bought in at the step 2 (22) and step 3 (55) levels exclusively. i bought in over 200 times and showed a very small profit. 200 buyins, of course, because of the looping, turned into nearly 1k SNGs.

all in all, it was fun to switch it up, but didnt meet my hourly rate grinding the 22s and 33s. plus, you end up with a zillion mini step 1s, which are virtually worthless. if i could i would sell them for 3 bucks each. they are only good for drunken fun.

this is still a small sample size, but you might find a couple interesting points in my post.

dont overvalue the worthlessness of a mini step 1.

[ QUOTE ]

you end up with a zillion mini step 1s, which are virtually worthless. if i could i would sell them for 3 bucks each. they are only good for drunken fun.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're not kidding. I played one today and it was 3 handed after 17 hands. I hadn't entered a pot. I hadn't even give it much attention. Was checking mail and messing about on the PC.

I was heads up with about 700 chips in Level 3 and won it.

The most bizarre STT I've ever played.

Just checked the hand history and it was down to 3 players after 16 hands. I'd post them but you'd vomit.

[HatesLosing]

I have yet to try it, but I have a feeling these might be very profitable if you are rolled to just buy directly into step 5. Otherwise, it seems like your hourly rate will just suck no matter what your ROI is. I guess it depends on why you are playing, but imagine looping back over and over and over and over and over and over and over again before moving on? You just spent hours and hours playing, and even if you lost nothing and theoretically gained some money by moving on, how many theoretical dollars PER HOUR is that???

[skipperbob]

Hello KoJak: About a year ago, or so, I entertained exactly the same notion that you have; but I have (had) more $$$ than brains or time, so I solicited the help of the two best "SnG'ers" that I know (Irieguy & Zen).

I put up $1,000 and had them play as many Steps as that would buy; starting at regular Step 2's (20 buyin's).

Final result = Zero Step 5 cashes...They also complained about how long it took to play all the step entries that the original S-2's produced.

On another note, taking a distilled version of Raptor's advice, I played alot (prolly 200 or so) of direct buyin S-3's & S-4's and turned them into 43 S-5's ..I had an ITM in the S-5's of 39%

Finally, I totally agree with your comment about the "thrill" of playing a Step-5...Winning the 2 Step-5's was the GreekNutz [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[tshort]

Months ago I ran simulations regarding the steps. I couldn't find the post, but I just ran the script for the numbers I had in there for mini-steps. I don't believe anyone has any significant data for finish distributions, so I assumed the following:

Mini-Steps Finish Distributions
Number in parentheses is the step you will move onto followed by the probability of moving onto that step.

Step 1
(2): .20
(1): .50
(Out): .20

Step 2
(3): .30
(2): .36
(1): .32
(Out): .02

Step 3
(4): .26
(3): .24
(2): .22
(1): .21
(Out): .7

Step 4:
(5): .25
(4): .36
(3): .22
(2): .10
(1): .07
(Out): .00

I assume the expected return per step 5 played is $450 (.11, .11, .11, .105, .10 distribution).

If you buy into 100,000 step 2s and disregard step 1s, you will expect to play 8067 step 5s. You will expect to play a total of 302,300 tournaments.

Your profit per tournament played will be around $4.75. I don't think the best player could make over $5.50 per tournament played. If you buy-in to step 3, play step 2 freerolls, and disregard step 1 freerolls you can make about $7.75 per tournament played. You will have much higher variance playing the steps. I believe my assumptions would mirror very good finish distributions, so you would probably make less than the numbers I've generated. In general, I think you are much worse off playing the steps.

-tshort

[Nicholasp27]

[ QUOTE ]


Step 1
(2): .20
(1): .50
(Out): .20


[/ QUOTE ]

.2+.5+.2=.9 != 1

also, do u really think you can expect 20% firsts (only 1st place goes to 2, not top 2)?

[skipperbob]

[ QUOTE ]
dont overvalue the worthlessness of a mini step 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we need the "Grand Nit" (Irieguy) to comment on this triple-negative?

[tshort]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Step 1
(2): .20
(1): .50
(Out): .20


[/ QUOTE ]

.2+.5+.2=.9 != 1

also, do u really think you can expect 20% firsts (only 1st place goes to 2, not top 2)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Out should be .3... typo. It doesn't matter because I assumed you don't play any step 1 freerolls.

Further... I think a very good player might be able to get 20% firsts given the format and the fact that the mini step 1s are comprised of the biggest donks on PP.