Overpair against agression

ep510 · #1 10-06-2005, 09:19 PM

Villian is 14.5/7/2.4 (over 3k hands).

What range of hands do we put villian on?

Anyone like 3-betting the turn?
How about check-calling or check-raising the river?

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, Button calls, 1 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

River: (8.20 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets

KDawgCometh · #2 10-06-2005, 09:41 PM

I like the stop n go here as I think that its gonna put more bets in for the times that we are ahead. THe only logical hand that I can see this player ccing with that has us beat is a set of jacks. I would call a river raise, as he is just as likely to have QQ, 1010,99, or 88 that he played fancy. Of course he could also have KJ or AJ, but you never know

thesharpie · #3 10-06-2005, 09:51 PM

I have a hard time putting semi TAG players on hands when they coldcall preflop heads up, especially against our EP raise, I'm guessing something like AK[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or AQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or AJs, and 99-AA by the turn. I like a turn 3 bet, the only hand I'm fearing is JJ, you charge a FD an extra bet, and you get at least 4 bets in against something like QQ, that hand is probably just calling your river donk. I'm sure some of these hands need to be discounted more than others, not sure where to begin since he should almost always 3 bet or fold PF with all of these hands so they all need to be discounted. Maybe it evens itself out. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Edit: A turn 3 bet is best if he has AJs, KK, QQ, and a flush draw, we get 1 more bet against these than just donking the river usually, although a flush draw (AK/AQ) might call a river donk anyway, and a worse hand might raise the river.

Stop and going is best against 99 and TT, especially when a river card like this falls off as he'll probably think you're tarding it up. A stop and go is also good against JJ since we save a bet. It's very close if we don't discount any, if we do discount and say TT and 99 is more likely than KK and QQ it seems better to stop and go. On the flip side he's not always going to call our river donk with TT or 99, some people like to raise a hand like that on the turn planning on it being the last bet put into the pot.

Boy that was a mess, I'm not sure what to do now.. I think I like a stop and go now.

#4 10-06-2005, 10:05 PM

How does it put more bets in for the times we are ahead? If we're ahead, it becomes more likely that villain calls our river gaybet rather than raise. So we get 3. If we 3bet the turn, we either find out very quickly that we're behind, or more often, he calls our 3bet and river and we get 4 in.

ep510 · #5 10-06-2005, 10:40 PM

Part of the reason I don't like a turn 3-bet is that I don't want to get capped. Most of the time, I'll get capped by a set of jacks, but occassionally by a flush draw. Therefore, I don't think I can fold to a cap on the turn. Since I can't fold to a cap on the turn, I shouldn't 3-bet the turn.

thesharpie · #6 10-06-2005, 10:50 PM

Just because you can't fold to a cap doesn't mean you shouldn't 3 bet the turn, there are only 3 ways he can have JJ and many other hands you beat. It's even better if he's sometimes capping a flush draw since he's surely sometimes capping an overpair. You will save 1BB against JJ when he has it by not 3 betting the turn though so it does factor slightly.

ep510 · #7 10-06-2005, 10:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have a hard time putting semi TAG players on hands when they coldcall preflop heads up

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I was surprised when he cold-called pf. I was even more surprised when he popped me on the turn. At that point, I was so confused that I slowed down.

I really think that villian would 3-bet pf here with a hand like AA-TT, AK, and even AQs. If so, then he could either have a flush draw or a set on the turn. But these holdings (33, 44, 66, AsTs, KsQs, KsTs, QsTs) all seem unlikely since he (a TAG) cold-called HU (except for KsQs but this is only one combination). Thus, I really had no clue what villian could likely have on this board.